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points by MatekCopatek 4 days ago | 0 comments

18-20 million foldable phones were sold in 2025. About 10 million PS5 consoles were sold in that same period. So there's definitely a bit of interest.

Why does it have to be an all-or-nothing fight for the final smartphone form? Can't it just be a semi-niche product that some people buy?

[–] danpalmer 4 days ago

I don't think this is a fair comparison, they are different markets – most people need a smartphone today, nobody really needs a PS5. A better comparison is to say that of smartphones sold in 2025 (~1.65bn), foldables represented ~1%. That's pretty niche.

[–] denkmoon 4 days ago

I think it's a great comparison, you don't buy an expensive folding phone if you just need a smartphone, it's a luxury good just like a PS5.

[–] well_ackshually 4 days ago

A $500 console is not a "luxury good", unless you also count having a flat screen TV as a luxury good. Games is one of the most common things done in a household today

A $2000 phone (which will never be $2000, it's the minimum spec) to watch youtube videos and enjoy apps with bad layouts is in another category entirely.

[–] prmoustache 4 days ago

I have a friend who is not at all into luxury stuff but bought one because he never used a computer and was appealed by the screen size to make the administrative stuff he was struggling to do with a regular smartphone.

Having said that he is also known to make some bad purchasing decision and living in constant debt.

[–] CharlesW 4 days ago

That’s pre-Apple’s entry into the market, which will triple the size of the foldables market in the next 12-18 months. And cnsidering how bad foldables have been and how much better they’ll get, that’s surely not the ceiling.

[–] danpalmer 4 days ago

Apple sold ~250m of those ~1.65bn, so if you work on it being Android only, then foldables are ~1.4% instead of ~1.1%.

For the foldable market to triple in size, Apple would need to sell 40m this year, which if we assume a flat year for overall numbers (likely given rising costs this cycle and the trend of flattening sales anyway), then it would mean the fold taking 16% of all iPhone sales. For a ~2500-3200 USD phone (base model, international pricing), that's not happening.

Why would you think foldables are about to get a lot better? They have improved over the last 10 years, but the original caveats are pretty much all still there, and the iPhone Duo doesn't appear to improve on any of them in any meaningful way.

[–] prmoustache 4 days ago

>For a ~2500-3200 USD phone (base model, international pricing), that's not happening.

Honestly I have no idea. To me spending 800usd for a phone is already completely crazy yet apparently smartphones in the 1000 to 1400 range are plenty already. What is the ceiling at which volume will go down drastically? I honestly don't know.

Same for transportation, I don't understand why people accept paying north of 35kusd on a vehicle and that is before the additional yearly expenses. Yet there are plenty of cars sold in the 50k and above. I bought mine second hand for 6.5kusd and even if it died tomorrow after 2 years of use it would still have been a better deal than leasing even the smallest and cheapest new cars on the market for 4 years. Yet I still see plenty of brand new cars in the street every day (and I am thanskful of that, otherwise the second hand market would disappear) so plenty of people are willing to buy really expensive stuff whenever much cheaper alternatives exist.

[–] Shank 4 days ago

> For the foldable market to triple in size, Apple would need to sell 40m this year

For the record, it seems like the production will not get close to 40m phones this year. According to most outlets, it is backordered to January and Apple had to ramp production higher than anticipated. I highly doubt that it will literally 3x the market this year. But the pattern has been, excepting the Vision Pro, that when Apple enters a market, it suddenly proves the viability to other market entrants, and to the general public who view it as a mature market.

> but the original caveats are pretty much all still there

I don't think this is true at all. A significant portion of people complain about the crease, light reflections, and poor software. It seems like initial reviews don't find problems due to the "nano-texture" display (probably achievable in third-parties with a matte screen protector). As for software, once apps have been optimized for Duo, I expect that designs will carry over to similar form-factor folding devices on Android.

[–] well_ackshually 3 days ago

>It seems like initial reviews don't find problems due to the "nano-texture" display

Initial reviews don't find problems on Android foldables either, but the crease becomes noticeably visible no matter the phone over time. Apple did not invent magic: their phones already crease (and break)

> As for software, once apps have been optimized for Duo

They won't. There is zero business interest in making dedicated layouts for such a small portion of the population that won't be using your app anyways, unless you're hyper specialized. I'm sure Bloomberg can justify a foldable layout, the New York Times doesn't.

Apple is going to rediscover every single issue that Android has has five years to go through, and loudly yell LA LA LA NOT A PROBLEM FOR US APPLE MAGIC TRUST US while having worse APIs for developers to properly support those layouts.

[–] MBCook 3 days ago

> They won't. There is zero business interest in making dedicated layouts for such a small portion of the population that won't be using your app anyways, unless you're hyper specialized. I'm sure Bloomberg can justify a foldable layout, the New York Times doesn't.

And yet, lots are already. And as people have pointed out, it’s pretty close to being an iPad mini. So if you’re already doing different size layouts, you’re pretty close.

[–] catoc 4 days ago

”A significant portion of people complain about the crease, light reflections…”

Not a fan boy, but ‘a significant portion of people’ ?

All we’ve seen is influencing grifters <retches> falling over each other in nauseating attempts to ride this new hype-wave.

[–] crote 4 days ago

The PS5 is also a dead market. It was released over 5 years ago, so anyone who wanted to buy one has done so already, and the PS6 is expected sooner rather than later. The PS5 is, quite literally, a bargain bin product.

[–] hurfdurf 4 days ago

   The PS5 is, quite literally, a bargain bin product.

Which is why they are being sold like 50% over MSRP on the secondary market and Sony cannot ship them fast enough?

[–] Moomoomoo309 3 days ago

Is that true of both the PS5 and PS5 Pro, or just one of the two? My impression of that situation was that the PS5 Pro was in high demand because of GTA6, but the regular PS5 was plentiful.

[–] asimovDev 4 days ago

it just becomes more and more expensive with time, I don't think that counts as a bargain bin product.

[–] cr125rider 4 days ago

Some countries, like China, LOVE foldable phones. It’s fun to see how cultural it is.

[–] Gigachad 4 days ago

From what I've gathered, China is much more in to mobile gaming and livestreaming than the rest of the world. Folding phones seem to appeal to those who primarily consume media on their phones, so it checks out they would want larger phones.

[–] decafninja 3 days ago

Is this really just a Chinese phenomenon?

I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of people everywhere primarily consume media from their smartphones, whether it be Youtube, Netflix, gaming, etc.

None of my friends who don't work in tech own a personal laptop let alone a desktop with a big screen. Few of them even own tablets.

To them, a $2000 folding smartphone is a practical device that will be put to maximum use daily. A $2000 personal laptop is the luxury product they find no practical daily use for - laptops are for work, and only work.

[–] Gigachad 3 days ago

From what I can tell China is just ahead of the curve. If you look at gaming profits, mobile is well ahead in China while the rest of the world is still mostly on pc and consoles.

Theres also the whole vertical micro dramas thing which started in China but has been spreading.

[–] danpalmer 4 days ago

I suspect this might be my blindspot. I use my phone a huge amount, but almost never for watching video or gaming. Being able to have a "full screen" video, and another app running "full screen", with the effectively 2x screen space, makes sense.

[–] jpalomaki 4 days ago

With iOS 27 Apple introduced the iPhone handoff, which allows sharing the same phone number with two devices [1]. Maybe their thinking is that Duo is not necessarily your only iPhone.

[1] https://support.apple.com/en-us/127274

[–] mort96 4 days ago

So you're meant to shell out $2000 for the Duo and then an additional $1200 for an 18 or something?

[–] kotaKat 4 days ago

Don't forget $5-10 a month extra to the carrier for the privilege of using the feature, on top of the cost of the monthly service for both lines.

[–] MBCook 3 days ago

For those who want to spend the money why not let them?

[–] radpanda 4 days ago

> Can't it just be a semi-niche product that some people buy?

As a fan of smaller smartphones (the likes of which aren’t made anymore), I thought the answer to this was supposedly a resounding no.

I mean, Apple sold millions of iPhones mini but we were told that wasn’t a viable product.