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points by myphpgothacked 3 days ago | 0 comments

To be fair, I spent unbelievable amounts of money on Opus tokens for OpenClaw. Easily my biggest expense this year.

The risk is that other models are pretty comparable to Opus since around July.

Unless they have cheaper electricity costs, I can switch models interchangeably.

They don't have a moat.

Gosh I wish it was easier to short stocks. Whatever platform I used made me sell/buy 100, and I wanted to do this short 3 years long, and buy every 6 months.

We know Tesla and SpaceX are going down at some point. But "The Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvant."

And bear ETFs are not the same as shorting. I learned this the hard way with $80.

[–] palijer 3 days ago

To be fair, this account is 4 hours old and created 2 hours before the S-1 post.

With the amount of money involved here and the current agentic tooling context, how am I ever to take comments like from accounts like this on topics like this at face value?

[–] myphpgothacked 3 days ago

I'd like to think I don't just take hype as a reason to buy a stock.

I went to a birthday party for a kid with first generation Indian Americans that thought they could make money off SpaceX. It was extremely showoffy, they had their cleaning lady carrying around drinks like a butler lol

I warned them it was overvalued.

They thought they could make money quick before it collapsed.

I wonder if they did.

[–] spiderice 3 days ago

> We know Tesla and SpaceX are going down at some point

How do we "know" that about SpaceX? Still seems to me like they're basically maintaining their decade lead on everyone else on rocketry. And remaining competitive in their other endeavors as well. To me it doesn't seem at all unreasonable for SpaceX to never be meaningfully cheaper than it is today. But I'm not exactly following SpaceX closely. What am I missing?

[–] hibikir 3 days ago

If the rocket company was in the stock market as its own thing, not as an extremely complicated bundle, it would not be priced anywhere as high as it is now. I would expect that company to be healthy for quite a while too.

The actual difficulty we have with the modern tech company, which is at its worst with Tesla and SpaceX, is that we are really seeing a price or large conglomerates, so they are extremely hard to price. If they were all split into individual companies, how much of the market cap would go to each? I find the bundles to be rather anti-investor.

And no, it's not just those, and not really just tech companies, but that's where the problem is at its worst, as that's where expensive investments some of us consider worthless are tied with business worth something. Take Amazon. You are buying AWS, a logistics company, an ad company, and as part of this, there was always a devices division selling Alexa. I found Alexa to be a real loser from very early, but there was no way for investors to say what they thought the division was worth. The Amazon es execs could at any time decide to invest billions, or invest zero, and given the size of the conglomerate, the price change was going to not be all that high.

SpaceX has many components I would price near zero, where a lot of money is being spent. But as a pile of risky bets, the fact that they are a pile means it's harder to bet against any one, or ten of them. And if it merges with Tesla, that makes it worse. The difficulty in pricing the bundle makes it really easy to hide big mistakes for a while, until they are so big it all crashes. I don't think that is good for investors, or for having accurate pricing, which is one of the goals of a stock market.

[–] foobiekr 3 days ago

Rocketry revenue is so small that it can’t sustain even a tiny fraction of their valuation which is entirely ridiculous.

[–] elictronic 3 days ago

Biggest issue Tesla, SpaceX, Anthropic and all these companies have is you can't inflate your value beyond the total market. It's the same thing as bitcoin pushers trying to imply the value would 100x again pushing beyond the total valuation of the Earth.

These companies have the benefit of a real product at least, but eventually the rubes get fleeced.

[–] myphpgothacked 3 days ago

They could return $0.0001 per year with dividends lol

I think you'd be better off with 10 year bond yields in France than SpaceX.

Laugh emojis only.

[–] spiderice 3 days ago

Isn't that entirely because investors are betting on on Musk succeeding though? Lunar base / Mars colony / hundreds of daily starship launches is the long game. It's no different than Anthropics entire valuation being based on ASI. If they never achieve ASI, 2 trillion is the most insane valuation of all time. If they achieve it, 2 trillion will be your worst missed opportunity of all time.

[–] foobiekr 2 days ago

Mars is a distraction and a fantasy. Elon has mostly shut up about it after having missed all his dates and realizing nobody cares.

[–] JDups 3 days ago

> What am I missing?

That SpaceX's valuation is almost entirely from being an AI company not a rocket company. Their S-1 put rockets as around 5% of their TAM.

[–] small_model 3 days ago

You are missing his Elon political bias. Given every analyst on Wall Street is bullish and there last earnings was a huge beat its safe to say OP is a left wing warrior

[–] hsuduebc2 3 days ago

What a cope. Have you even considered his point a little bit? Surely everyone who disagrees with you or with any of the notorious liar's, usually acting as tech CEOs must be blindfolded by his LIbTarDish political stance.

[–] myphpgothacked 3 days ago

Wat.

I was a libertarian when I was a child.

Biden never gave me back my SALT Deductions. He did CHIPS Act and tried to cancel student loans.. Obama continued war in the middle east in Syria.

I'm definitely independent.

[–] ashkankiani 3 days ago

You don't need to bother defending yourself to someone who unironically says "left wing warrior" as an accusation.