The fun part is that we're still well before the point when this even matters.
Almost 60% of the US grid is still fossil fuels, with around half of that still happening during the day. Which means you can get down to ~30% fossil fuels without any storage at all because all you do is go from burning fossil fuels during the day and at night to burning fossil fuels only at night.
[–] chii 3 days ago
[–] Animats 3 days ago
The big issue is what's called "ramp rate" - how fast can output power be increased or decreased? This tends to be around 1% to 3% of capacity per minute. See Figure B-2 in [1], which is a detailed discussion of how to improve your coal-fired power plant's ramp rate.
Natural gas plants have much higher ramp rates, and for batteries, it's under a second. Nuclear plants can be ramped up and down, slowly, but since it's all capital cost, cutting output raises the price of the power.
[–] Maxion 3 days ago
Batteries are coming, and will solve it, but it will still take time for them to be come cheap enough.
Only once we have ~7 days of storage (~100 GWh of storage) will we be able to get rid of the last fossil plants.
[–] olegp 1 day ago
[–] pebbly_bread 2 days ago
How long is the hope those batteries will last? There's surely no way Finland can run off battery power for even one month, much less a whole winter.
edit: perhaps I misunderstood and your comment on batteries was more related to the reliability of wind?
[–] weberer 2 days ago
Finland's power grid stats are open to the public. You can click the month view to see how the different power sources fluctuate.
https://www.fingrid.fi/en/electricity-market/power-system/
Also fun fact: a lot of solar panels in Finland are mounted vertically to walls rather than rooftops. That's because we're so far north that the sun just hangs around the horizon rather than going directly overhead. You end up catching more sunlight pointing directly south.
[–] dns_snek 2 days ago
[–] leonidasrup 3 days ago
"Increased rates of component life consumption due to thermal fatigue, mechanical fatigue and wear caused by differential thermal expansion comprise the bulking of cycling (costs)," according to the International Energy Agency's Coal Industry Advisory Board.
"Every time a power plant is turned on and off, the boiler, steam lines, turbine and auxiliary components go through unavoidably large thermal and pressure stresses," the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) wrote in a report on cycling costs published in April 2012.
"
https://www.reuters.com/article/business/energy/to-survive-c...
[–] IX-103 2 days ago
[–] Ericson2314 2 days ago
[–] Havoc 3 days ago
Other countries are better positioned. e.g. UK has really spiky wind energy. Right this second more than half the grid is wind. Which is both cool and problematic for managing the grid.
Grid scale cheap storage would dramatic help manage that chaos
[–] rob74 3 days ago
[–] Maxion 3 days ago
For Europe to get rid of more fossils without putting the grid at risk we will need more storage.
[–] Lio 3 days ago
That and low energy density storage located at sea with the turbines.
[–] pyrale 2 days ago
[–] Ericson2314 2 days ago
Storage has been making impressive strides, but the cliff here (in storage and transmission, the latter of which we in the US still are sucking at) puts nuclear back in the running.
[–] AnthonyMouse 2 days ago
[–] HDThoreaun 3 days ago
[–] Panzer04 3 days ago
[–] shagie 3 days ago
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45956
If you shut down by day, it can take multiple hours for it to be able to provide full load... and multiple hours for it to shut down cleanly. During this time it is producing power at less than optimal rates and/or using the fossil fuels to keep the wheels spinning and in sync with the grid so that they don't have to go through a phase matching period.
(aside for coal - note that it takes more than 12 hours for a coal plant to get running from a cold start)
[–] adgjlsfhk1 3 days ago
Wind also helps since wind makes more power at night, as does demand which is dramatically lower at night.
For coal, Great. Making coal economical is excellent. We should have banned it worldwide 20 years ago.
[–] adrianN 3 days ago
[–] traceroute66 2 days ago
It might help if the US wasn't so anti off-shore wind at the moment.
[–] shagie 2 days ago
[–] HDThoreaun 3 days ago
[–] pinkgolem 3 days ago
That makes 300B
Eu pricing
[–] GlibMonkeyDeath 2 days ago
And we can sure find those trillions when we want to: https://defensecommunities.org/2026/04/trump-requests-1-5-tr.... Or https://www.budget.senate.gov/chairman/newsroom/press/extend.... Or...
[–] adrianN 3 days ago
[–] GlibMonkeyDeath 2 days ago
[–] Saline9515 3 days ago
[–] eptcyka 3 days ago
[–] banktops 3 days ago
[–] traceroute66 2 days ago
And if we subtract all those datacentres crammed with Nvidia GPUs ? ;)
If we're being honest here, the problem with the US is that it has always treated any sort of energy source as being infinite and has always been quite extravagant in its use of energy.
Whether a preponderance for gas-guzzling SUVs or datacentres the story is always the same. The US mentality is there will always be infinite oil in the pump and infinite electrons in the cable.
[–] jerven 2 days ago
I also think your trillion number is at least double the raw cell cost today.
[–] pinkgolem 2 days ago
[–] loomy7 2 days ago
[–] fpoling 3 days ago
[–] thelastgallon 2 days ago
Reserving 20% of that capacity to supply power back to the grid is 5TWh.
EVs can be charged for free during the day, ~20% of solar is lost due to curtailment. Even if a significant percentage (10 - 20%) of the people decide they are going on long drives from Florida to Vancouver and turn off supply-power-to-grid-for-money in the app, its fine, there are plenty of cars. It is the cheapest, most resilient, distributed and self-healing energy ecosystem. Only one problem, it won't make the super billionaires money. Unless it can be packaged in a way to make the super billionaires money, its a no go in US.
This infrastructure buildout costs nothing, people buy new cars all the time (~20M/year), just buy EVs instead. Because people are providing the capital and the storage infrastructure, they should be paid for it.
[–] HDThoreaun 2 days ago
[–] bijowo1676 3 days ago
[–] buckle8017 2 days ago
It's also pretty old.
"USA should look into thing it practically invented" good meme
[–] bijowo1676 1 day ago
dont you see the problem with USA solving the problem and USA still having a lack of energy storage issue ???
[–] shagie 1 day ago
Batteries have a much faster dispatch time than pumped storage. Pumped storage is good for offsetting reduction in other production capacity, and its dispatch time is faster than peaker plants, but its not as fast as a battery.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectric_power_in_the_Uni...
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41833
2020 numbers had 22,894 MW of capacity. More storage capacity for power is needed.
The "where are things located" is in the mountains where there's a significant elevation change. Most of the country is too flat to have pumped storage be practical. Installed pumped storage in Michigan (about 2GW of capacity there) does little for the power demands of North Dakota.
And then... there's also building new ones.
Even though FERC has issued licenses for three proposed pumped storage projects since 2014, no new pumped storage projects have come online in the United States since 2012. EIA’s most recent survey of planned power plant additions shows no pumped storage projects under development.
That may be in part from the 2005 failure at Taum Sauk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_... At 5:12 a.m. on December 14, 2005, the northwest side of the upper reservoir was overtopped when water continued to be pumped from the lower reservoir after the upper was full. This led to the catastrophic failure of a triangular section of the reservoir wall and the release of 1 billion US gallons (3,800,000 m3) of water in 12 minutes.
...
As of 2011, Ameren was reported to have paid a total of close to US$200 million in settlements related to the 2005 breach.[–] shagie 3 days ago
There's a good number of 'em: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Pumped-storage_hydroe...
https://www.ferc.gov/media/licensed-pumped-storage-projects-...
You'll see that most of them are in the Appalachian mountains and in the Sierra mountain range.
The one in Missouri is one of the interesting ones that isn't in either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taum_Sauk_Hydroelectric_Power_...
> The Taum Sauk pumped storage plant is a power station in the St. Francois mountain region of Missouri, United States about 90 miles (140 km) south of St. Louis near Lesterville, Missouri, in Reynolds County.
It has a hydraulic head of 860 feet and that represents the challenge - you need to find places in the US where you can get several hundred feet of elevation in a short distance.
Hypothetically, lets build one in Minnesota... Taum Sauk Mountain is the highest point in Missouri. The highest point in Minnesota is Eagle Mountain (in the boundary waters - you can't build there, pretend we can) ... the elevation to the top os 550 feet (about half what Taum Sauk provides) over 3.5 miles (Taum Sauk is just over 1 mile). ( https://maps.app.goo.gl/vHfWarwubaLvsf5z7 )
Much of the US is too flat for it to be useful.
[–] justincormack 3 days ago
[–] rr808 3 days ago
[–] acdha 2 days ago
(That’s the answer for the northeast, too: New England has no shortage of wind all winter long and batteries don’t care where the electricity comes from)
[–] saltcured 3 days ago
[–] AnthonyMouse 2 days ago
Suppose that solar generates only during the day and only when it's not cloudy, and it's cloudy e.g. 10% of the time. Then you're using natural gas at night, but those natural gas plants still exist during the day, so you can also use them on the 10% of days that are cloudy and you're still replacing 90% of the daytime demand.
[–] kulahan 3 days ago
Even if we handwave all the science needed to build batteries big enough to power cities for days, I don't think it's realistic to handwave the science needed to power a city for weeks. We don't even have enough oil for that.
"Power when it is inconvenient" is pretty much the basis for a modern society.
[–] crote 3 days ago
Heavy clouds and zero wind, for weeks? That's a once-a-century freak event. Just build gas peaker plants if you are worried about it. You could even add carbon capture, but constructing it might emit more than it will ever capture...
[–] dgudkov 3 days ago
I assume you never tried measuring the output of a solar panel when it's cloudy. It's 10-15% of a sunny day. Closer to not working than working.
[–] bruce511 3 days ago
On a rainy day that drops closer to 20%.
As an aside - cloudy days avoid a problem I have with shade. In winter, at 3:30pm, the sun goes behind a tree and my production plummets to near zero. If there's cloud cover the sunlight is far more dispersed and there's no "shade".
[–] andsoitis 3 days ago
And you’re still able to power your entire home? What if the rain lasts for a few days, which is pretty common in many places.
[–] bruce511 3 days ago
[–] stephen_g 3 days ago
I did have one rainy day back in the middle of Winter that was 16% but that will end up being literally the worst day of the year.
[–] tialaramex 2 days ago
It also has relatively wealthy people, living in lots of individual housing units. If you wanted to design a country that's perfect for rooftop solar your imagination might come up with Australia.
That said, Australia ought to be able to run almost everything off solar given how sunny it is, and instead solar is a distant second behind coal for electricity production. So there's plenty of work left to do.
[–] zdragnar 3 days ago
[–] PaulDavisThe1st 3 days ago
[–] kulahan 3 days ago
Our energy grid can't currently handle the ability to charge electric haulers locally at any scale let alone to move an entire city's worth of energy, so the solution is not to 85x the national electric grid all at once.
[–] ZeroGravitas 3 days ago
But to give them due credit, they believed in this vision and put in the hard work to make sure it became true.
[–] eldaisfish 2 days ago
If the US decided to divert half of the Pentagon's annual budget to electricity, the US could absolutely build the infrastructure to transport electricity thousands of kilometres.
[–] acdha 2 days ago
Also, it’s weird to talk about Florida when, say, Arizona and Utah, etc. are right there. Even Wyoming despite being further north has over half of the month sunny in the winter. One thing to remember is that we could power the entire country using solar with a fraction of the land currently used to produce corn for ethanol so we don’t even need to substantially change land use, just stop subsidizing inefficient fuel generation.
[–] defrost 3 days ago
That's literally CCP state controlled communism !! More specifically, that's what the Gansu–Zhejiang UHVDC project has as an overhead transmission line length (2,370 km in international units).
* https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014206152...
* https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20241113-will-chinas-ultr...
[–] hunter-gatherer 3 days ago
[–] saltcured 2 days ago
And, this gets even worse if you are also replacing baseload plants with solar, since the solar output is more variable than those old plants were, so now you need even more storage capacity to offset those dropouts at the same time you are handling demand peaks.
Sometimes, I think there is some magical thinking going on when people see solar panels work at a house without batteries, and they fail to recognize how much they depend on the grid for stability. If they ran in island mode, they'd quickly understand just how important storage is...
[–] adrianN 3 days ago
[–] ZeroGravitas 2 days ago
Anything below 800g of CO2 (which means basically every current grid) means electrifying is a net win. Even the famously coal heavy South African grid is already past that barrier and even if it wasn't all grids are getting cleaner over time.
A grid that has maxed out wind and solar and then used only coal for 2 weeks would be one of the cleanest grids in the world right now, on par with France or Sweden.
Chasing 100% on a grid to satisfy the complaints of people who are concern trolling isn't smart nor necessary. What you need is bulk cheap electricity to allow you to reduce your heating and transport costs and clean your air at the same time.
[–] adrianN 2 days ago
[–] fpoling 3 days ago
[–] adrianN 3 days ago
[–] fpoling 3 days ago
[–] adrianN 2 days ago
[–] awesome_dude 3 days ago
A common battery for grid level storage is pumped hydro - that is, use the peak power during the day(s) to push water from the bottom of an elevation to the top, and hold it there - bonus points if it captures water delivered from other solar processes (evaporation -> rain)
[–] kulahan 3 days ago
[–] acdha 2 days ago
When talking about cost, it’s important to remember that solar+batteries are already cheaper and, unlike nuclear, happen on much shorter timescales. I’m not opposed to some nuclear plant starts but those guarantee a couple decades of increased pollution before there’s any chance whatsoever for carbon reduction, whereas solar can come online in a year.
[–] kulahan 2 days ago
You’re right, though, that nuclear is ALSO only a part of the solution. One day, it will be a major and necessary component of our grid, but we need to start tackling this carbon problem harder, and like… yesterday.
[–] perilunar 2 days ago
That's its function, but that does not make any device that stores energy a 'battery'. An electric battery is specifically a battery of electrochemical cells — Franklin invented the term as analogous to an artillery battery (a collection of guns).
Calling every form of stored energy a 'battery' is just dumbing things down for the masses.
[–] awesome_dude 16 hours ago
Maybe I did need to dumb it down more if that was missed.
[–] johnea 3 days ago
The overwhelming majority of generation and storage is best deployed at the point of use.
Grid scale anything, is a massive inefficiency.
The only reason grid and city scale is so prevalent in public discourse is because this is the only electricity the utility is paid for, and they are very actively impeding any other solution.
In the US, there is a very large inventory of flat roof industrial buildings, in the industrial parks that are using huge amounts of electricity. Covering all of those roofs with solar (especially here in the west US) would prevent a tremendous amount of grid scale generation, and implementing storage there would eliminate a large part of the transmission line upgrades the utilities are calling for.
The biggest problem in the US isn't technical, it's the governments desire to primarily support the solutions that are best at serving utility shareholder returns, instead of the technically superior solutions.
[–] prawn 3 days ago
It's quite common in Australia for commercial and residential.
[–] footydude 2 days ago
One factor is weight - a lot of low-cost industrial units may well need modifications to the roof to strengthen them to be able to take the additional weight of solar panels.
Certainly where I work (science research facility in the UK) our business has only been able to install roof-top solar on a comparatively small proportion of our total roof space because a large amount of the seemingly viable space would require substantial works to make the roof strong enough for solar.
[–] kulahan 2 days ago
edit: I could see this working well in AUS and USA because we've got lots of space and sun. Might be harder in Europe and northern Asian regions
[–] acdha 2 days ago
[–] missinglugnut 2 days ago
If rooftop solar power were so economically efficient, the manufacturing companies would get far more shareholder money lobbying for rooftop solar than utilities can make lobbying against it. But your conspiracy thinking doesn't account for this.
Heavy machinery uses dramatically more power than the roof space above it can produce. And you can't shut the factory down every time there is a cloud in the sky, so you need a utility hookup that can power the whole factory anyway.
The grid is the technically superior solution. That's why megacorps with capital and lobbying might keep willingly connecting to it.
only natural gas plants can do this. a coal plant cannot spin up just for the night and turn back off when the sun comes up - it's incredibly inefficient and probably causes more premature wear/tear too.