Hacker News

points by alberth 3 days ago | 0 comments

Valuations are a function of growth rate.

Anthropic growth rate is truly unprecedented at it's scale.

They are 10x revenue YoY.

  2024:   ~$0.4B
  2025:   ~$4.0B
  2026: ~$100.0B

Note: I'm not justifying it, just explaining how the markets are rationalizing it.

[–] ml-anon 3 days ago

If I was selling dollars for 50c and Nvidia, alphabet and Amazon giving me dollars for a piece of my company, my revenue growth would be the same. That’s what Anthropic is doing.

[–] alberth 3 days ago

That's no longer the case though anymore according to the S-1.

  2025: $0.50 revenue per $1.00 of compute
  2026: $1.82 revenue per $1.00 of compute

[–] ml-anon 3 days ago

lol yeah if you completely discount the actual amount they paid for that compute which is hidden in the 70Bn of debt which is waved away as a non operating loss, sure.

[–] postpriorx 3 days ago

That's per inference compute right? Or does it also include training compute?

[–] ml-anon 3 days ago

It’s per unit of bullshit. No one knows what the true cost of Anthropic’s compute is because of circular financing.

[–] eujd 3 days ago

Stop posting nonsense ok?

Valutions are a function of cash flows, growth of those cash flows and risk. Don’t forget to discount properly on your way out.

[–] baobabKoodaa 2 days ago

They did not post "valuations", so your hostile comment seems weird and misplaced.

[–] nonethewiser 3 days ago

Hackernews commenters generally dont care about the Anthropic's financials because they have unassailable grievances.

At $2T Anthropic would need to look roughly like Alphabet today by 2030 for investors to earn a normal market return (20-25X earnings). That or similar baselines should be the basis of discussion, not if AI is overhyped, if it will grow faster than Amazon did, oligarchy(?), etc.