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points by Supermancho 3 days ago | 0 comments

The 3% growth in the us market is virtually (90%+?) all in AI company valuations/investment. It is a depression, that hasnt been announced. Wait till after midterms for the blame to be leveled with the announcement.

[–] HumblyTossed 3 days ago

Yep. We'll be told to argue over our collective political beliefs while corporations and billionaires continue to drive the economy for the 99% into the crapper. It's a machine that cannot stop until we all have nothing left.

[–] astrange 3 days ago

Looks pretty good for the 50%:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/mehoinusa672n

[–] edot 3 days ago

If you believe in government-measured CPI, sure. No one I know (very median people) would say they’re doing better economically now than ever before. Literally zero people I know would say that.

[–] astrange 1 day ago

Across what time period?

Most people do better economically over their lifetimes because most people's earnings grow as they progress in their careers.

[–] drstewart 3 days ago

What is your definition of depression, exactly?

Besides "sounds cool with shock value online"

[–] Supermancho 3 days ago

> What is your definition of depression, exactly?

A real GDP decline of over 10% year over year for more than 1 year is the biggest signal. Ofc, I noticed the US Federal Government has been cooking the books since at least H. W. Bush (maybe longer) by including tech stock potential gains as part of GDP. Take out tech stocks, the US economy looks like it will to historians.

Even in the modern day, an economic depression is associated with massive unemployment, deflation, reductions in the trifecta of industrial output + consumer spending + international trade, with the final kicker being reduced credit availability. Currently, interest rates are relatively high (historically middling) which has effectively restricted consumer credit, while the national credit rating has fallen.

[–] drstewart 3 days ago

You can't just randomly exclude entire sectors of an economy.

[–] Supermancho 2 days ago

The model is as useful as the predictions. The factor by which the GDP is boosted based on tech stocks valuations is the random factor. Including tech speculation has distorted the published GDP. Granted, tech speculation is cause for increased velocity, without commensurate production.

Modeling that the GDP goes up because people are buying bitcoin would be the equivalent of the AI investment effect. A key difference being that the AI companies are currently included in the calculation and bitcoin is not. I don't mean to imply that the AI companies are transparently ponzi schemes, but they are all massively overvalued. The net GDP effect should be very very small if not negative, while the valuations are being used to justify a growing GDP that would otherwise have obviously fallen.