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points by mirekrusin 3 days ago | 0 comments
from what you've written it's more like:

- 2026: $97.08B

- 2027: $97.08B

- 2028: $97.08B

- 2029: $97.08B

- 2030: $66.96B

- 2031: $66.96B

- 2032: $40.09B

- 2033: $40.09B

- 2034: $14.59B

- 2035: $10.00B

- 2036: $10.00B

Total: $637.0B

Considering everything that is cancellable, ie. hard commitment only, it's:

- 2026: $56.79B

- 2027: $56.79B

- 2028: $56.79B

- 2029: $56.79B

- 2030: $56.79B

- 2031: $56.79B

- 2032: $29.93B

- 2033: $29.93B

- 2034: $10.00B

- 2035: $10.00B

- 2036: $10.00B

Total: $431B

If they go bankrupt, there are some more cancellations available, also from the other side – if some providers don't deliver, it can be lower as well.

[–] dyslexit 3 days ago
That's helpful, but 2026 isn't cancelable, nor is at least half of 2027. Also, I think some of these numbers are off. Only SpaceX is cancelable but the above shows declines for years outside of the SpaceX commitment (assuming it does get cancelled, and in full).

I also left out AMD at $20B for 2027, so that would need to jump up.

Finally, the above is only counting the commitments they've already made. It's not very likely they'll only spend $10B in 2035.

[–] mirekrusin 3 days ago
It goes down because contracts expire.

AMD is missing, true but commitment schedule isn't known. Also missing estimated additional TPU purchase for 28-31, ~$125B-$150B.

- 2026: $97.08B = Broadcom $26.87B + SpaceX $30.13B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B

- 2027: $97.08B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + SpaceX $30.13B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + AMD (TBD)

- 2028: $128.33–134.58B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + SpaceX $30.13B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + additional TPUs $31.25–37.50B + AMD (TBD)

- 2029: $128.33–134.58B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + SpaceX $30.13B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + additional TPUs $31.25–37.50B + AMD (TBD)

- 2030: $98.21–104.46B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + additional TPUs $31.25–37.50B + AMD (TBD)

- 2031: $98.21–104.46B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + additional TPUs $31.25–37.50B + AMD (TBD)

- 2032: $40.09B = Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B

- 2033: $40.09B = Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B

- 2034: $14.59B = Amazon $10B + Lambda $4.59B

- 2035: $10.00B = Amazon $10B

- 2036: $10.00B = Amazon $10B

Combined total: $782–807B+, including estimated additional TPU purchases and conditional AMD spending.