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points by yyyk 3 days ago | 0 comments
>You don't think Iran would have renegotiated to extend it further?

Why would Iran want to do it? Iran could absolutely control Hormuz* and get a nuke at will** under the deal. At that point it can avoid sanctions by threatening the Gulf. Or demand other concessions for allowing the Gulf to operate. That's what it tries to do now, but from a much weaker position compared to the deal timeline.

* Take the real life prewar Iranian missile and drone strength, assume Iran had an extra couple of hundreds of billions to pour into it, no import limits by the UN, a less restive populace, etc.

** Breakout timeline being a week at most at end of expiry timeline. Probably the only way to keep the Gulf independent at that scenario would have been nuclear deterrence.

>If not, why would they even bother to follow the agreement in the first place?

Because Iran wasn't anywhere strong enough at the time to risk a war, but the existence of the agreement and general developments would have predictably changed the power balance in its favor.

>The legality of what they do has never been a consideration

Well, if you decide something is legal, it's much tougher to change one's mind and stop it later.

[–] hardbass 3 days ago
Why didn't they blockade the hormuz before then?
[–] yyyk 3 days ago
They did in the late 80s and were crushed. Also talk of doing it was rife before this war.
[–] hardbass 2 days ago
But they couldn't before the war. The stupid israeli war blocked the strait which was operating fine before the Israeli invasion. So clearly Israeli invasion is to blame for the blockade.
[–] yyyk 1 day ago
Iran already could. All the pieces were there as well as the plan. It's that US & Israel attacked first. The same would have applied even worse for JCPOA extension scenario. Ultimately, so long as Iran is strong enough and radical enough, it will use its power on the strait next door.
[–] hardbass 23 hours ago
But all that is theory, clearly they didn't try it or feel the need to do so until it was invaded for no reason by two violent warmongering countries. The count of wars started by these two regimes is far higher than those started by Iran. The blame of the closure of the strait squarely lies on America and Israel.