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points by internetter 3 days ago | 0 comments

Why must prediction markets have a predefined end date?

Without it, capital would be trapped indefinitely.

This is not necessarily true, you could have contracts rather than money down

Sure, but in most (all?) financial settings, this would still count as exposure.

It doesn’t matter if I bet $N on something using cash or margin, my exposure is still $N.

Since you can’t have unlimited exposure, this would still lock up capital, until the bet can be resolved.

Well, so? Then the prediction market would also price expected resolution time.

How would it work otherwise...?

Anybody can exit their contract by selling their contract to an interested party