Yes, it doubles the probability that I win the lotto. Yes, doubling a probability is significant. I'm not sure you're using the term "prior" correctly here, though.
As I said, it doubles the probability. That is an easily verifiable fact. Not sure why you are calling it facetious. I feel like you are trying to make some point about small probabilities being effectively indistinguishable from zero, but for some reason you don't want to articulate that?
Anyway, 3% is very very clearly distinguishable from 0% and so is 5%.
[–] baobabKoodaa 2 days ago
[–] maybeOneDay 1 day ago
[–] baobabKoodaa 1 day ago
Anyway, 3% is very very clearly distinguishable from 0% and so is 5%.