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points by colechristensen 2 days ago | 0 comments
It takes about a decade to bring one up and during EVERY wave of a booming memory demand supply crunch there has been a subsequent round of major bankruptcies from suppliers who decided to scale and had no demand when they finally got online.

Supply is not elastic and responds very much slower than demand. There's no conspiracy or corruption needed for this result.

[–] kbolino 2 days ago
The conspiracy is real, it's even been proven in court, but as things stand, it's also necessary because of the factors you describe. Investors will not touch the DRAM market with a 10-foot pole, so it has had to rely on self-funding. While there have been state subsidies too, price fixing has proven to be the most effective way to survive the extreme volatility and fund the massive capex necessary for each generational leap. They have gotten a bit more sophisticated about it since the court case 20 years ago, but as far as I can tell, it's basically the same as it's ever been. The lack of effective competition is a function of the market itself, not any tilted scales. If anything, tilting the scales on purpose with greater state involvement is the only way to change the dynamics, but few states have the capacity and competence to carry that out effectively.
[–] dzhiurgis 2 days ago
> Investors will not touch the DRAM market with a 10-foot pole

Have you not seen Micron or Sandisk stock?

[–] kbolino 2 days ago
Sandisk doesn't make DRAM.

Micron's stock price did go way up, after they stopped selling DRAM to the consumer market. It has been flat for several months though.

For comparison, SK Hynix stock is flat YoY and Samsung's stock did go up this year, but has come back down a bit (they're also much more diversified). Those are the only other companies outside of China that actually make DRAM at scale. There's also CXMT, which is making inroads, but its stock is not traded on any open markets, and the company is heavily backed by the Chinese government.