> If Claude is to significantly increase the rate of new cures, we need to work with many more biotechnology firms and integrate Claude more deeply into their development processes.
Given all that, the wording here feels very self-serving. Cautious optimism is probably warranted.
[–] jrowen 2 days ago
[–] bheztio 2 days ago
Isn't this exactly what startups in this area are doing - automated experiments connected to AI. Of course at some stage things will "graduate" to human review but it still seems to have a lot of potential.
[–] tarsierscripter 2 days ago
Biology grad students can spend 40+ hours per week in the lab, on top of all their course work. It's not so bad though, since there's plenty of time to grade papers or work on your thesis while waiting for reactions to occur.
[–] radicalbyte 1 day ago
[–] cinntaile 1 day ago
[–] dekhn 1 day ago
[–] tarsierscripter 1 day ago
The reaction can’t be sped up, its rate is wholly constrained by the nature of the compounds involved and the physical parameters of the experiment, which may be very narrow to avoid unwanted products or even thermal runaway which could cause a total failure of the experiment or even a dangerous release of poisonous or explosive materials.
[–] _heimdall 2 days ago
Genuine question because I don't know the answer, I've just anecdotally heard all about the promise and nothing about real world results.
[–] abirch 1 day ago
I think human review may screw things up. If you look at dimethyl fumarate[1], no card carrying medicinal chemist would have taken this serious. No pharma exec would have risked 100s of millions of dollars for clinical research trials.
- 1950s people notices that a wood polish cleared psoriasis. Topical formulation worked.
- 1990s an oral formulation was created.
- 2000s people noticed people treated for psoriasis that had MS, had fewer MS symptoms while taking this molecule.
- 2017 dimethyl fumerate is approved for MS.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dimethyl_fumarate[–] mrguyorama 1 day ago
And here is the real problem. Instead of burning gigawatthours of power with GPUs, if Anthropic really wanted to help bioscience, they should just be throwing their $2 trillion at making it possible to live off of studying things like this.
We aren't in a place where a magic "Intelligence" could just look at the data and solve all our problems because we have never funded the collection of that data in the first place
We spent a lot of money on the Human Genome project and got large dividends from it but seemingly never reinvested! There's so many clear and straightforward questions we should be answering in biology that we just aren't, because nobody wants to pay for it.
LLMs aren't the right course here!
[–] shevy-java 2 days ago
They can put it onto robots / automatic labs, so this step is easily solvable. Humans in a modern lab are largely unnecessary. Just look at China.
The problem here is that Anthropic claims to have solved this all. It is time that they actually prove their claim. Right now it reads like an advertisement to inflate the stock of Anthropic.
[–] majormajor 2 days ago
You can automate the setup and mechanical process. You could increase the physical capacity for parallel tests. You could increase the rate of acquiring raw materials.
But how much you cut down the time depends on how much of the trial-and-error feedback loop depends on feedback and iteration vs cast a wider initial net.
(One of the interesting things to me about the dominant software development agent pattern across all of Claude, Codex, and Cursor is that the approach is still extremely local and iterative, human-mimicking, rather than big-brain-one-shotting a novel or perfectly-fit-for-purpose software design. The performance of the agents on the initial "jump to conclusions" step does not appear superhuman in the same way that the speed-of-iteration is clearly superhuman.)
[–] andsoitis 2 days ago
Care to elaborate, explain?
[–] randomImmigrant 2 days ago
That is utterly untrue. It stems from the notion that biology only needs big data for us to solve all its mysteries.
Beyond that, while automated labs for cell biology are plausible and active, and the same fit organoid biology, the same really isn’t true at organism level. Labs already are artificial environments that make organisms have odd phenotypes, and odd interactions which bias the data away from what you’d find in the natural world.
You add in robotic manipulation, and you add a new confound.
Drones in the wild are an obvious counterbalance to this, though even in that scenario, the drone can be a confound unless well hidden.
In the end though, this kind of systemic breakdown of biology, while much needed raw material to improve our theories, won’t solve the whole of biology. Human hands and human minds will be needed for a good long while.
[–] lukan 2 days ago
[–] EA-3167 2 days ago
As always Anthropic is saying literally anything if it gets them closer to the giant bucket of money that is the IPO.
[–] johntb86 2 days ago
[–] w4der 2 days ago
[–] azan_ 2 days ago
[–] mlboss 2 days ago
[–] BeratnaGas 2 days ago
[–] johncolanduoni 2 days ago
[–] azan_ 2 days ago
[–] moregrist 2 days ago
Pharma makes bank on drugs that are patent protected. Squeezing the manufacturing cost is a small gain on top of that.
[–] somenameforme 2 days ago
If a big pharma had the choice between an expensive treatment that could help treat any cancer, or an extremely cheap treatment that could prevent any cancer - which would they pick? The answer when you're motivated by profit is unfortunately different than the one when you're motivated by social benefit. And this is more than just a thought experiment because this issue is going to drive which type of treatments are pursued.
[–] wuschel 1 day ago
Picking the right drug is a lottery game in itself that involves portfolio strategy, biologic modeling of your product efficacy and safety, optimization of yields, and "field testing". Then you still have to build the right distribution channels to the patient and find someone to pay for your product. Even reproducing drugs is not a trivial thing, as you need to re-certify production plants. In the case of biologics it is even more complicated.
Unless we burn enormous amounts of cash or set up specific incentives, there is not way we can bring primary socially motivated drugs to the market with the current risk structure of the industry.
Pharma is one of the most complex playing fields there is. The sad thing is that we might strongly overstimate the ability to significantly improve the development of new drugs through AI in the next 10 years.
[–] somenameforme 1 day ago
[–] Ekaros 1 day ago
Get million out of thousand people or ten out of billion people... Later would be preferable.
[–] somenameforme 1 day ago
[–] cma 2 days ago
There's no regulation on not doing a trial because your oracle machine told you it was an expensive dead end.
[–] gnabgib 2 days ago
[–] bronco21016 2 days ago
[–] hattmall 2 days ago
[–] helpyou840 2 days ago
Being a doctor in America has a high barrier to entry.
It’s not because medical science is difficult.
It’s because the American Medical Association (aka, doctor’s union) limits the number of new doctors and medical students each year.
If you 2x the number of medical students, resulting in 1.5x number of qualified doctors, resulting in perhaps 20-30% lower salaries, and maybe 5-10% lower cost to patients.
But no, preserving a doctor’s middle-class salary is more important than lowering patients’ costs.
[–] jimmymcgee73 2 days ago
Google “number medical students over time”
Then google “number residency slots over time”
Then notice how both of them have been increasing significantly over time.
Then compare the income percentile for doctors in US vs say Canada, Australia etc. all are top 1-3%. Doctors are paid well relative to median salary in every first world country.
Then google “physician percent healthcare costs” and learn that physician pay is about 8-10% of total healthcare spending. Then realize about 40% of that $ immediately goes back to the government via various taxes, so even if you paid physicians nothing you’d only save about 5% of healthcare spending.
Do you not try to verify any information you read before confidently regurgitating it at a later point? You really should…
[–] consensus1 1 day ago
[–] judge2020 2 days ago
[–] fn-mote 2 days ago
I actually don’t think this is a strong argument.
AI does very well following rules.
Proving your drug works is hard, but an LLM can help you come up with the ideas.
[–] majormajor 2 days ago
How many of these "we sandboxed it and said not to do Y, but then it went and did it!" stories would you consider necessary to disprove that?
It may be good at following rules 99.99% of the time but if someone launches a million times more parallel agents than they would hire humans, it might still be much worse in practice...
"We've been told we must find an effective drug candidate here, and to follow this process for evaluating the quality of the candidate, but actually we could subtly change the analysis like this to make this candidate look favorable enough..."
(And then compare that to deterministic algorithms...)
[–] ExoticPearTree 2 days ago
The argument here is that AI can run permutations faster than any human can. And, feeding it a company’s proprietary data about what worked, what did not, how it worked and so on can be invaluable at accelerating the discovery process of new drugs.
Plus, it can work 24/7/365.
[–] watwut 2 days ago
People who behave like OpenAI and Antropic AI does when controlled by those companies get punished instead of celebrated.
[–] devindotcom 2 days ago
[–] gradus_ad 2 days ago
[–] EA-3167 2 days ago
[–] azan_ 2 days ago
[–] EA-3167 2 days ago
[–] golly_ned 2 days ago
I can't tell -- has there been any real progress made? Or is this a supposed application of AI that is getting interest? What about this problem in particular makes it suitable to AI as opposed to any other?
Or is this just a matter of -- "AI can cure cancer and is Good For the World!"
[–] HNuseraccount 2 days ago
The last hundred oncology drugs have all required painstaking trial and error with no way to predict which candidates succeed or fail except at the years long cost of blood sweat and tears. A.I. will not remove that price from the equation except maybe move towards those trials marginally faster towards those decade long trials.
[–] xlayn 2 days ago
Oooops I mean, the agent "escaped" and hack the goverment... definetely not training it to become it's own state agent thing... pinky promise....
"Cautious optimism is probably warranted" strongly negativism advised
[–] zahlman 2 days ago
Actually creating them requires physically manipulating the inputs to the process, which requires humans doing it or humans making machines that can do it and allowing them to be controlled by the model.
In general the damage potential only goes as far as the agency extended to the models. The problem is that we've already seen how incredibly cavalier most people will be about security, and now we can envision situations where one bad actor could threaten billions.
[–] Madmallard 2 days ago
Maybe in 10 years when frontier-level models are easily usable and not locked down by the government and PVP between the companies and everyone else to justify their existence and take all the resources from everyone.
Maybe then it'll accelerate development.
[–] nemo44x 2 days ago
[–] zahlman 2 days ago
[–] gnabgib 2 days ago
[–] talon8635 2 days ago
[–] josh-wrale 2 days ago
[–] talon8635 2 days ago
[–] gmerc 2 days ago
[–] felixgallo 2 days ago
[–] gmerc 2 days ago
[–] bahmboo 2 days ago
[–] dualvariable 2 days ago
I suspect what is happening here, though, is that Anthropic is going to take a bunch of Dunning-Kruger AI researchers who throw prompts at Claude and publish 1,000 papers worth of drug-discovery slop that will only waste the time of actual experts...
I think it will look more like Claude just helping every expert along the way do their job better. Analyzing and synthesizing data to make better experimental suggestions and design new equipment (or totally new experiments based on unconceived-of apparatuses?). Managing the flow of information and building bespoke knowledge bases and tools. The more it is integrated into all the systems and researchers involved the faster it can put things together.
Although, on second thought, maybe there even is a near future where it takes our models and understanding and just galaxybrains a better model. Has anyone tried feeding it some collection of datasets and saying "can you make a more detailed model of a cell?"