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points by Vakaiser 2 days ago | 0 comments
Here's the wikipedia article for this problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_girl_paradox

Personally, I find that the ambiguity and phrasing of the question is what leads to pedantic 'gotchas'.

9017 children are born and 4263 are female while the remainder are male; what's the probability that the next child born is female?

It's 50%, if one assumes a bimodal distribution without atypical karyotypic deviations. Preceding births do not determine future births. They are causally independent events.

1245 of those children were born on Friday; what's the probability that the next child is male?

Still 50%. Week day of birth does not impact sex distribution.

It's the way the question is worded that splits this into an intuitive biological problem or an obtuse probability problem.

[–] rcxdude 2 days ago
It's not necessarily ambiguity (though sometimes it is), but more just subtlety in terms of the questions that you are asking. It's important because it can matter a lot in practice that you are running the right calculations for the information you have and not introducing a bias by missing some detail.
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