Blitz-scaling LLM for fictional future revenue assumes competing technology will remain immutable. It is a false premise with dire consequences for the credulous.
China is already filling the vacuum within the flash/ddr/cpu/gpu market, and quality/speed will rapidly improve with domestic use. We are already seeing blank label storage clones emerging in international markets. =3
[–] kristopolous 17 hours ago
[–] Joel_Mckay 14 hours ago
Micron made the mistake of letting the dog drive, and ultimately tied their brands fate to a dubious high-risk/high-reward market. The dram situation has already hit SSD/HDD, ram, and PC sales... as consumer dram chip supply chains are choked off by the hyper-scaling hardware investment loop demands.
"Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before a fall." (proverb 16:18)
>Don't tell me people are building out data-centers with 16tb spinning disks
Inexpensive JBOD HDD storage is still around $25/TiB, and while higher than tape ($7/TiB) it remains viable. The dram cache chips on the HDD PCB are likely more expensive than the old hardware now.
Personally, I have gone with old 25GB BD-R ($21.50/TiB for Ridata disc) for archival storage. It is janky, but the lowest cost cold-backup solution at the moment for home-scale projects. The 7 year disc MTBF should push past the 2032 estimated hype-bubble supply chain DDoS.
BD-R are slow to burn/access, hard to auto-load, and not a viable option for LLM/bitcoin project folks. I thought the tech was EOL 10 years ago, and yet here we are. =3
Other datacenter prices aren't up 500%. CPUs, tape storage, mainboards, racks, cases, PSU, infiniband hardware, HVACs, all price stable.
But consumer grade RAM? Up 500%. USB disks? They're hundreds of dollars.
Also low density platter is up 2-300% as well. Don't tell me people are building out datacenters with 16tb spinning disks, I don't believe you.
It's companies that have price fixed doing it again.
Their EPS are up like 60x. Their stock is up like 10x and we're supposedly like "well I guess this thing you could sell for profit at $20 is now $960, cool"
And what's micron doing with it? $35 billion stock buy back. Alright. Asshole prices it is.
Prices of cheap 10 year old tech continues going up at crypto asshole speeds. Everyone should be insanely angry.
These prices aren't going to stop until either a non cartel player enters the market or there's a DOJ that's not just a bunch of kalshi and crypto scam bros.
We'll see what happens when everyone hears "black Friday? Nah, bro, prices are up another 20%, lol"