Hacker News
points by Aurornis 1 day ago | 0 comments
> A new Amish-like lifestyle may be developing before our eyes in real-time and that's very interesting to follow and observe (from a distance).

I’m just old enough to remember some older adults in my life who refused to use email. They would only talk to coworkers in person or on the phone.

It did not work out very well, unless they could afford to retire at that point. When your career evolves, the only way to keep participating is to evolve with it.

[–] jwitchel 1 day ago
I knew a guy early in my career who has a secretary (for starters!) who printed out his email and put them on his desk every morning with the rest of the mail. He would then dictate his response to her and she would type it in. It was pure ego. Nothing else.
[–] acheong08 1 day ago
I have a friend who uses ChatGPT, but writes all the messages on paper, takes a picture, and sends it in. Then prints out all the responses to annotate and respond to.
[–] b112 1 day ago
Some in that era could not type, at all.
[–] brudgers 1 day ago
Yes, and because typists and secretaries were predominately women, it was not as uncommon as one might imagine for male executives to eschew personal computers based on their perception of gender roles.

I like to call it “keyboard cooties.”

[–] senderista 1 day ago
There's a great anecdote about that in the book _Dealers of Lightning_, where the Xerox execs were indifferent to a demo of the Star personal computer but their wives were ecstatic about it.
[–] kube-system 1 day ago
These things have a self-reinforcing feedback loop -- consider also for example, men learning to use "power tools" but not a sewing machine.
[–] marcus_holmes 1 day ago
I don't know why you're being downvoted, this is absolutely true.

I had a boss early in my career (around 1990) who considered typing effeminate and was mildly horrified at what the world was coming to with all us guys who were cheerfully using a keyboard. He had a secretary who did all his typing. This was ~5 years before email became common, but I'm sure he would have had all his emails printed so he could read them properly.

[–] gattr 1 day ago
And I've read somewhere that quite a fraction of young people nowadays can't type (effectively) on a physical keyboard - no wonder, their main interaction with computing being via phones and tablets. Could be that typing won't be useful/practiced anymore (like already cursive writing in some parts of the world).
[–] awad 1 day ago
There is a generation of people that are unique insofar as having grown up with handwriting on pen and paper (with cursive!) in school while also having typing/computing classes and access to the internet at a young age. Of course, people could type before computers, though it was a specialist skill more often than not, and kids certainly have every opportunity to pick up both handwriting and touch typing today, but the balance of it all isn't quite the same is it?
[–] kevin_thibedeau 1 day ago
Also a way for dyslexics to hide their issue.
[–] bpshaver 1 day ago
Isn't this still what Donald Trump does?
[–] kube-system 1 day ago
Yes, he doesn't really know how to use a computer. He was born in the 1940s, computer skills are not super common for people from that generation. He was already in his mid-50s when computers started to become common in the workplace.
[–] saimiam 1 day ago
I’m in my mid forties. If VR/ar devices like the Apple Vision Pro were to go mainstream, I can’t imagine myself learning how to use it effectively as a daily driver device to get work done. Heck, even the Internet, I’m pretty sure my relationship with it is more of wary scepticism than most people in their thirties.

I can see why someone who never used email until their fifties would never get fully comfortable with it.

[–] marcus_holmes 1 day ago
Isn't this the original point? The workplace is getting AI-ified, so there are lots of people who are unwilling/unable/uncomfortable changing the way they work to deal with it.
[–] scruple 1 day ago
It hasn't exactly worked out well for email, either...
[–] carlosjobim 1 day ago
There's no better written communication tool than email. It's one of the most successful inventions of the 20th century.
[–] i_love_retros 1 day ago
Why?
[–] fsckboy 1 day ago
i have 4 email accounts, and I check them maybe once a week. nobody sends me emails any more, everybody uses "messaging"

(actually, i forgot i have 2 or 3 others, I check them even less, perhaps a few times a year, really only when i need to reset a password associated with them)

[–] scruple 1 day ago
Out of roughly 400 billion emails sent daily worldwide, estimates pin actual human written messages at around 10%. In personal inboxes, human correspondence is essentially extinct. Checking my own personal email inbox right now, the entire first page is 2FA, Amazon, some shit from my climbing gym, my car, my employer health insurance, my bank... My spam filters are aggressive and there are literally thousands of unread emails in there waiting for me to click select all -> delete. Even at work the overwhelming majority is automated Jira noise, CI/CD noise, calendar shit, compliance blasts... I have received maybe 2 or 3 actual human typed messages in the last 2-3 weeks.

It's a fucking log dump for machines.

[–] rootusrootus 1 day ago
Totally agree. About half the time, or more, that I send an actual email I get no reply because it got lost in the deluge of crap and I end up calling or texting the recipient so they know to search their inbox for my message.
[–] zeroonetwothree 1 day ago
40 billion/day is extinct ?
[–] scruple 1 day ago
For personal correspondence? Yes. Most of what email was used for, for actual humans in their personal lives, has transitioned to SMS and other apps like WhatsApp, WeeChat, Signal, Discord, and that happened a decade ago.

You see that 90% of the daily volume is sludge and think this is a healthy communication network for humans?

[–] ranger_danger 8 hours ago
There are other types of non-personal reasons people still use email. I certainly don't SMS or WhatsApp with my work colleagues or any of our vendors.
[–] mohamedkoubaa 1 day ago
Refusing to use technology isn't the Amish way, they communally decide how and when to use technology.
[–] Hamuko 1 day ago
According to the AI boosters, my career (and pretty much everyone else's) is already over anyway.
[–] pj_mukh 1 day ago
I am an AI booster, and this is incorrect. Your career will change, and if you change with it, it'll thrive.
[–] Cthulhu_ 1 day ago
What unique selling point do individuals operating AI still have if it's AI doing the heavy lifting and specialized work? I mean I don't believe that people in general will need to work less (no automation has done that), but I'm convinced many people will need to find new employment at lower wages in a society where cost of living only increases.

I can't afford a pay cut, and AI isn't making my job worth more.

[–] pj_mukh 1 day ago
" will need to find new employment at lower wages "

Why at lower wages? Most automation has led to people transitioning to higher wages. Utility works get paid 10x more than lamplighters. Why would that change here? Your job will have a bigger impact, affect more people, and you'll be doing more with less.

I am not saying all employers will immediately start paying people more, but economically it doesn't make sense that pay will go down.

[–] AngryData 1 day ago
To me this just reads like how I imagine people and the Luddites thought about automated looms. At first they were excited, thinking about the cheap and abundant cloth they put in plenty of work to make automated looms work flawlessly, until they start getting replaced. But they made excuses that they always need someone who knows more than "put cloth on spool, press button" to run these factories and that skilled people will always be needed. But slowly and surely the factory went towards quantity and not quality, and since quantity was done regardless why pay for the skilled and knowledgeable workers? And soon nobody made good money making cloth except the factory owner, the cloth was shit, and the people who built it all left with nothing but memories of once being valuable.
[–] pj_mukh 1 day ago
>>people who built it all left with nothing but memories of once being valuable.

But, the story doesn't end there does it? Most loom workers left their jobs and became factory workers (part of the same technology revolution) and critically: made MORE money. They were wealthier. And the loom machine operators left had a better job. There are very good sources for this, not just vibes [1].

I don't deny that the transition process is traumatic, and there is much we should be doing this time around to assuage the process. But all the evidence points to a general rise in pay, material conditions and standard of living.

[1]: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300205251/libertys-dawn/

[–] stvltvs 1 day ago
As anyone in the Rust Belt can tell you, the average worker might experience higher wages over time, but the average worker is a statistical fiction, not a flesh and blood person.

Individuals and entire communities can live out the rest of their lives destitute and hopeless in the wake of changes that leave them behind. Things might be brighter for those who come after, but let's not pretend we're not doing real violence to those left behind.

[–] lbreakjai 1 day ago
I don't think the analogy holds. AI isn't automating one job, it's automating _knowledge work_. There's no factory work to flee to, literally and figuratively.

Try to come up with a job that both doesn't produce anything physical, and can't be done by AI.

[–] jacquesm 1 day ago
And where do you propose the 20-25% or so of the soon-to-be-jobless will go next?
[–] harimau777 1 day ago
From what I've been able to find, that book does not make the argument that the people actually displaced from their jobs ended up better off. It is certainly possible for some workers to end up better off while those who were displaced do not.
[–] District5524 1 day ago
Recent news from China about how better AI capabilities changed what Chinese specialists can earn with microdramas are not confirming this point. Some historical analogies to reassure people things will turn out nice in the end are nice but are not very convincing if you have so many more recent counterexamples with the gig economy and the huge inflation that was not a problem in the early 20th century.

The economy now is very different, no gold or silver standard, less isolation and more globalised product chains and processes, and 7-times as many people.

There is a good chance that a large enough number of people will suffer from this transformation, and they will have to fight with whatever they have, because if they don't, they will risk being left on the roadside and not getting any raise.

People having some direction over how jobs are automated should keep that in mind, otherwise it will be too late to convince the masses of people fearing automation that it is their fault not seeing the positive angles of automation.

[–] tavavex 1 day ago
> Most automation has led to people transitioning to higher wages.

No, what you mean to say is that automation has eventually (decades later) led to higher purchasing power in the system as a whole. The outlook for people that were directly automated away was pretty bleak, actually. The hundreds of thousands of lamplighters did not largely become the thousands of electricians that were needed in this new industry.

This tracks for all industries. Automation literally means far fewer people will be employed to do the same job (otherwise what's the point of it?). That dumps these workers out at the low end of the general job market, where they have to compete with an increasing number of people. Because of the desperation to get any job, the wages fall. It's only decades later that societies settled into a new place and created enough brand new jobs to make up the shortfall, or applied regulation to reign in the crazy power imbalance. That's the stuff you miss out on if you only look at statistics that span centuries and treat the population as one homogeneous mass. The people who are directly targeted by automation are very likely to have their lives messed up for a very long time.

[–] eloisius 1 day ago
That’s only one analogy. What about artisanal cobblers vs Southeast Asia Nike sweatshop workers?
[–] noumenon1111 1 day ago
Well, for example, a metric ass-ton of shoes and shoe components are made in Bosnia. But hardly anyone still makes the traditional opanci in the traditional way; there's one guy left in the whole Hercegovina that does. And they are required for the national costume, so they are still important. But the economics just don't work out.
[–] pj_mukh 1 day ago
>>What about artisanal cobblers vs Southeast Asia Nike sweatshop workers?

No technology involved? Other than I guess tangentially, containerized shipping. I don't see how that analogy applies here at all, every AI workflow I've seen has been either:

a) Totally new thing that was never done before that is possible now and is therefore creating a new class of work

b) Worst case scenario: a whole spate of jobs being consolidated under one person, but its still a human in the end.

So everything I'm seeing is pointing to this being a lamplighter/utility worker situation.

[–] Hamuko 1 day ago
>Most automation has led to people transitioning to higher wages.

Gonna need a citation for this.

[–] pj_mukh 1 day ago
Easy. Name one profession within the North American context that makes less money (inflation adjusted) now than say a farmer, loom weaver or laborer of yore.

A grub hub delivery man is wealthier today than a farmer 100 years ago and that's purely because of two reasons: Technology and Unions :)

[–] Hamuko 1 day ago
This argument only works if you have a career (and lifespan) that spans 100+ years. I'd venture a guess that 0% of Grubhub delivery drivers were farmers a hundred years ago.
[–] harimau777 1 day ago
I don't care if my career thrives. I care if I thrive.

Currently, I don't see any reason at all to suspect that AI will make my life better or even just not make it worse.

[–] cyclopeanutopia 1 day ago
And you are basing this on what, exactly?

AI boosting seems to be very close to pulling shit out of ass.

[–] officeplant 1 day ago
My change will be killing the computer. I will then thrive.
[–] brudgers 1 day ago
Sometimes career tracks cease to exist…typists, secretaries, and in real time right now translators.
[–] echelon 1 day ago
The job is to automate the enterprise, keep things safe and reliable, and make money for the company.

It was never about software. That was just the means.

Even in the software era, fads developed and tech stacks changed frequently. Now it's just moving a hundred times faster.

You need smart systems thinkers to do this. That's the role. Be smart in managing processes and complexity.

I'm not going to give coding interviews anymore, but I am going to give architecture, systems design, and SRE interviews. People still need to know how not to fuck up a database and how to design scalable and resilient systems.

[–] phil21 1 day ago
Very much agree with most of this.

The number of people who never seem to have understood what software and IT is in most companies is eye opening to me. Your job was never really to "write code" - you were always automating things.

That the field got somewhat stuck for a couple decades seems to have made many people forget this.

The vast majority of programmers who started in the 80's and 90's are basically directly responsible for massive waves of job losses in certain categories. Lots of cases of entire departments of secretarial level paper-pushing work being replaced with a small team of programmers. Same will happen with AI tooling. The difference is programmers are no longer the "winning" party here.

Computers and software in the end are the most configurable and complex automation system society has ever created. They are simply a continuation of industrial automation, and AI is a continuation upon that.

[–] basilgohar 1 day ago
I think it's helpful seeing AI in this context, at least in as much as it pertains to enterprise and industry.
[–] insane_dreamer 1 day ago
hospitals still use faxes not email due to the latter's inherent insecurity
[–] rootusrootus 1 day ago
About 20 years ago I had a phone number that was one digit off from a local attorney who took medical malpractice cases. And despite not using it myself, that phone line had built-in fax detection and so it would accept any incoming fax and then email the results to me. I lost count of the number of times I got sent a good chunk of someone's private medical records. In many cases repeatedly from the same source, despite me calling them and politely explaining that they had just sent someone's medical records to a random stranger.

So ... perhaps more secure than email, but not necessarily as much as you'd think. Though maybe it isn't as common now to have phone lines with fax receiving included. I worked for a CLEC at the time and got my phone & internet through them too, so maybe I was just getting the special deluxe plan. Had my very own public class C, too, but that's a different problem.

[–] Telaneo 1 day ago
As if phone lines are not inherently insecure. The only reason they use fax is because it's been grandfathered in.
[–] harvey9 1 day ago
Are you sure? I work across a few hospitals in the UK and can't recall seeing a fax in the last decade.
[–] insane_dreamer 1 day ago
in the US, yes. I experience it personally. Can't speak for other countries.
[–] i_love_retros 1 day ago
I don't like that comparison. Email was an improvement to snail mail, and the people who you claim refused to use it just didn't understand it and didn't want to understand it.

Lots of people, myself included, understand llms and can and do use them at work because we have to, but we might choose to not use them outside of work because they rot our brains, are unethical, funnel even more money into the hands of a few billionaires (selling a service trained on stolen property) and haven't actually been proven to make the world better. Unlike email!

[–] GaryBluto 1 day ago
I’d love to read the paper on how email was objectively “proven to make the world better” and how LLMs fail this same test.
[–] i_love_retros 1 day ago
Come on Gary, prove me wrong smartass
[–] i_love_retros 1 day ago
Email stopped me having to walk to the post box or spend a lunch hour in the post office. Before WhatsApp etc it let me communicate instantly with relatives in other countries for free. Email made my website accounts harder to crack. So many things.

What the fuck have LLMs done yet? Nothing! We would be no worse off without them so far and no one has anything to show to prove otherwise, except some vibe coded websites that all look the same (edgy dark theme and hacker vibes)