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points by eitally 1 day ago | 0 comments
At least in the case of Google, the pace of their buildout is very nearly being matched by the growth of Cloud consumption (and related contracts with companies like Anthropic & OAI). Cloud had >100% y/y growth this quarter to >$30b rev. That's insane, and it's quite profitable. But consumption revenue is always a lagging indicator of capital investment, and it just so happens that this business cycle is demanding a scale of capex heretofore unimaginable. Institutional investors seem to have been happier with business as usual (big annual stock buy-backs, predictable cloud/ads/youtube growth in the high-20% range, EPS in the $5-9/share/qtr range, and an enormous pile of cash). This is the first time since 2004 where buying GOOG really feels like placing a bet rather than buying a blue-chip. To that point, this is also why GOOG has been treated like an AI company for the past 18mo or so, rather than a media & infrastructure company, and what justified the dramatic increase in it's P/E.

Taking a longer view, I have confidence things will work out well and this dip is a great buying opportunity, but I can also understand why the market several reasons to be skittish.

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