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points by throwaway473825 16 hours ago | 0 comments
I don't think it's a coincidence that China has developed batteries that neuter the advantage that gas had over coal, but I can't stop wondering if we'd already have solved long-term storage if China hated coal as much as oil and gas.
[–] carefree-bob 16 hours ago
China does not hate oil and gas.

To put things into perspective, China gets half its energy from coal, and about 10% from natgas (increasing to 15% by 2030) and about 20% from oil. China is rapidly increasing natgas use, primarily by building out new pipelines to get more natgas from Russia.

China is also increasing oil consumption as well as exploration, particularly starting with the 14th 5 year plan as well as a special seven year action plan to increase oil production, doing deep water drilling, unconventional (e.g. fracking) drilling as well as a massive shale oil boom. Over the course of that 5 year plan, China discovered more than 225 oil fields and oil production increased from 3.8 million barrels per day to 4.6 mbpd as a result of a ~500 billion CNY investment to increase production. Still China imports about 10 mbpd, so it has developed a massive 1.5 billion barrel strategic reserve, which allows China to weather disruptions in global oil supply even as it races to increase domestic production.

And China is also investing in battery capacity, with installed capacity now at 140 GW or 5% of their energy usage.

The statement that somehow "batteries neuter the advantage that gas has over coal" is not something I understand. Both coal and natgas are reliable forms of energy and are unaffected by battery capacity; you need batteries for unreliable energy such as wind or solar so that you can turn the variable output into something stable that a grid can consume.

[–] tialaramex 16 hours ago
> The statement that somehow "batteries neuter the advantage that gas has over coal" is not something I understand.

In thermal electricity plants it takes a lot longer to go from cold & dark to generating electricity with coal than with either Combined-Cycle gas or especially the Open-Cycle "peaker" gas plants. Both types of gas plant also AIUI have a lot better ability to "throttle" their power output.

This means if you have a bunch of CCGT like Britain, you can use those directly to "top-up" the power from your fleet of solar PV and wind turbines, whether that's 1GW of top-up or 20GW of top-up. The change from weather (sun goes down, wind picks up, clouds appear, etc.) is relatively slow compared to what a gas plant can do, whereas it's too fast for coal to keep up as I understand it.

[–] lazide 15 hours ago
Coal by it’s nature is much less amenable (from a physics/chemistry) perspective to automation and high resolution control. Less pure/refined, granular instead of a gas, harder to start and burns longer once started, etc.

Contaminants in the coal (due to it being a solid mineral) also means it burns with a lot often toxic ash that is hard to deal with.

On the plus side, you can often literally use an excavator to dig it up and put it in the back of a train and then burn it with minimal other capital equipment.

It all makes sense.

[–] pixl97 14 hours ago
>literally use an excavator to

That might be understating the issue. The excavators we use to dig coal have been, and are monstrous. Thousand ton beasts requiring a fleet of support vehicles around them and the ever increasing depth of overburden.

Also the fly ash leftovers tend to get piled up and occasionally break lose in human and ecological disasters at massive scales.

[–] tialaramex 13 hours ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagger_288

This is the same kind of scale as those fictional "Spice Harvesters" in Dune. Look around for a photo where there's a person or a familiar object you know the size of in the same frame as the Bagger 288

[–] lazide 11 hours ago
That is due to the inevitable scaling that occurs with volume, it is not necessary in any sort of physics sense.

You can try it yourself - you can literally harvest/mine coal with a shovel yourself in many areas, and burn it in a fireplace if you don’t mind how dirty it is.

[–] jmyeet 15 hours ago
Here's a detailed breakdown of China's energy picture since 2020 [1]. The big story is that fossil fuels are relatively stable or in decline and solar is exploding. Hydro is down because of drought and they're building an even bigger dam than the Three Gorges Dam (ie Medog) but it'll be ~7 years before it comes online.

There has been an uptick in coal this year to replace oil imports, which have fallen off a cliff because of the Iran war [2]. The real story of 2026 is how China essentially saved the world economy by doing this [3].

China is dependent on oil and gas imports but clearly sees the writing on the wall. All of these projects are an effort to wean themselves off of oil. So is a lot of domestic policy like the electrification of vehicles. This has had a global impact, reducing global oil demand by almost 2% in the last 5 years [4].

I agree with you on your point that I don't see the connection between batteries and gas vs coal either. If anything, batteries are to stabilize energy demands when the Sun is down.

[1]: https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre...

[2]: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/crude-oil-imports

[3]: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/china-crude-oil-iran-hormuz-...

[4]: https://www.intellinews.com/china-led-ev-boom-cuts-global-oi...

[–] tialaramex 14 hours ago
> I agree with you on your point that I don't see the connection between batteries and gas vs coal either. If anything, batteries are to stabilize energy demands when the Sun is down.

Because spinning a coal plant up or down is slower, the batteries let you make the gradient more gentle.

Suppose Alice's gas plant can go from 100MW output to zero in ten minutes. So if Sam's solar farm goes from zero to 100MW over ten minutes in early morning Alice's plant can mirror, between them Alice and Sam produce 100MW of power smoothly. Obviously real life is more complicated but this gets the point across

Now, Charlie owns a coal power plant, it can ramp from 100MW to zero, but it takes about an hour. This doesn't directly mirror the solar farm, Charlie and Sam can't really just work together to smoothly produce the same power

Bill's 100MWh BESS fixes this. An hour before the sun comes up, Charlie's coal plant begins shutting down, Bill's BESS puts out 100MW while consuming the gradually reducing coal power output and some of the gradually increasing additional power from the solar farm as that increases.

[–] carefree-bob 13 hours ago
> The big story is that fossil fuels are relatively stable or in decline and solar is exploding.

This is true only in the sense that fossil fuels, as a percentage of total energy consumption, are stable or in slight decline. That is because total energy consumption is rapidly increasing, specifically as new forms of energy are added to the mix.

Fossil fuels in absolute terms are, however, increasing.

China is burning more coal today than ever before. Coal use is going up. Coal use as a percentage of total energy is going down.

China is burning more oil and natgas than ever before. It is increasing. But as a percentage of total energy, it is decreasing.

This also matches China's CO2 targets. China's plan is not to decrease CO2 emissions, those emissions will keep increasing. The targets are to decrease the emissions required to generate a dollar of GDP. By 2060, they want the ratio of emissions to GDP to be 60% lower than it was in 2020. If you look at historical trendlines, that is an easy target to meet, just with improvements in technology and energy efficiency, particularly when you are starting from such a high base. But people look at that goal and think that China wants to cut emissions by 60%. GDP in 2060 will be 10x what the GDP was in 2020, so a 60% cut in that ratio is still a 400% increase in total emissions. Everything is measured in terms of ratios, not absolute numbers. Ratios where the base is always rapidly growing.

This confuses a lot of people who see that the ratio of fossil fuel in the entire energy mix is decreasing, and think this means that actual fossil fuel use is decreasing. The charts, report, graphs that people cite, if you look carefully, are always ratios. Ratios with the denominator growing as the denominator is something tied to GDP, whether total output or total energy output.

It's more accurate to say that there are limits to how much additional fossil fuel capacity China can bring online, as these are mature industries, whereas nuclear, solar, etc, are young industries and there is a lot of capacity to bring online since you are starting from a low base. China's approach to energy is always "we want more of it, of any kind." The only reason that China's oil production is not increasing by 10% per year is because it's not possible for China to increase oil production that quickly. Same for coal. China is increasing all forms of energy as fast as possible.

[–] tialaramex 13 hours ago
> China is burning more coal today than ever before. Coal use is going up.

In terms of electricity production, that does not seem to be the case

https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent...

It's possible that China's metallurgical coal burning increased so much that it offsets power generation decline, but I wouldn't expect so.

> China is increasing all forms of energy as fast as possible.

This does not match the observed reality.

[–] rini17 13 hours ago
> This does not match the observed reality.

Observed by whom? For example this shows no change in overall trend.

https://www.iea.org/countries/china/emissions

[–] tialaramex 12 hours ago
Two problems. First, you were talking about China growing all forms of energy, but this chart isn't somehow depicting that, instead it's about CO2 emissions, but more importantly Second that's a chart ending in 2024. The chart I linked shows a dip for Coal in 2025 and further reducing year-on-year through to September 2026.
[–] carefree-bob 7 hours ago
Your link shows a wavy curve of coal use that has an upward trend. I think your graph does prove my point.

Here is longer term data also: https://www.worldometers.info/coal/china-coal/#history

China is using more coal than ever before. But it's not monotone up, there is such a thing as a business cycle as well as global commodity price swings that add noise. Certainly when there is a contraction in manufacturing or high coal prices, firms will substitute away to other goods, or similarly when we have the oil shortages now, you can bet that coal use is increasing to compensate.

But despite all that there is a marked upward trend.

> This does not match the observed reality.

It matches the observed reality, yes. China spent half a billion Yuan to increase oil production, which it did. China increased coal production. China increased nuclear production. China increased wind and solar.

Name one form of energy that China is not increasing?

[–] tialaramex 5 hours ago
Your assertion was "China is burning more coal today than ever before"

But it turns out by "today" you meant not literally today, or this month, or even as perhaps we might anticipate this year, but decade or so.

Decades is completely the wrong scale in this conversation. You won't be able to see anything until it's too late to matter.

[–] maxglute 6 hours ago
>Name one form of energy that China is not increasing?

Literally coal considering latest data, i.e. not historic data that caps at 2024. 2025 potential tipping point, total coal generation TWh down in absolute terms, during record export year. 2026 on trend for another ~1% YoY decline. Peaking coal for energy generation part of 2026-2030 15th 5Y plan, we're in the _planned_ plateau phase, and decline after. Of course planned / projected, but we're edging to 2 consecutive years of declining absolute coal generation. Full trend is line goes up suddenly stops. Now to be completely fair, there was 2 years of coal decline 10 years ago when PRC was fighting war on pollution and stalled a bunch of factories and shuttered coal plants i.e. total electric generation stalled. Current structure shift from construction (less steel / less concrete), but total electric generation also growing.

That's just for power generation, you're right coal use set to increase for petchem, i.e. replace oil for industrial inputs since coal feedstock cheaper than oil at current prices. But in terms of energy, coal is not increasing despite new coal infra is increasing to more efficiently use coal for peaking instead of baseload. You're also right PRC doesn't "hate" coal, I mean it would probably love to have ample cheap oil/ng, but unlimited coal is good consolation / contingency at least until renewable share becomes dominant. PRC loves domestic coal for energy security, but not enough to burn it forever especially when the economics don't make sense, but enough to have insurance infra to burn in ample amounts just in case.

[–] jefurii 15 hours ago
Username doesn't quite fit here
[–] oblio 16 hours ago
China can't hate coal (yet). In case of an armed conflict with the West, they will be cut off completely from oil and gas. Renewables don't cover all their energy needs. So they are building a lot of coal plants as backup.
[–] bryanlarsen 16 hours ago
> cut off completely from oil and gas

China is the world's 4th largest oil & gas producer. They're dependent on imports because they're the 2nd largest importer. However, they are simultaneously increasing production and decreasing consumption. Those two lines will cross some day. It might be a dangerous day for the rest of the world when China stops becoming dependent on imported oil.

[–] tuesdaynight 16 hours ago
> It might be a dangerous day for the rest of the world when China stops becoming dependent on imported oil.

Why? Would China just try to start a global war? If it's about Taiwan, I'm not sure that USA would care like 5 years ago. USA will probably do the same with South America

[–] toomuchtodo 15 hours ago
China built strategic petroleum reserves that can operate for over a year so that if the US attempted to blockade oil supplies from the middle east during a conflict, China could press on when they decide to obtain Taiwan (or so the geopolitical strategy thesis goes). Does it make sense to take Taiwan once China has their own semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and Taiwan is mostly a retirement home [1]? Hard to say. Old people in power take illogical and unconventional actions out of nostalgia, historically speaking.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50260274

[–] toomuchtodo 16 hours ago
China coal use has dropped below 50% [1], and they currently curtail renewable generation roughly total annual generation of Spain and the Philippines combined every six months [2] (~401 terawatt-hours of power). They are rapidly deploying battery storage to accelerate electrification and making use of energy that would otherwise be curtailed, which should continue to drive down coal use (their electricity markets are currently reconfiguring to use market signals and incentives to encourage this outcome).

They will, in the next five years (at current renewables and battery storage deployment rates [60% of their energy currently comes from renewables, and this increases 10% YoY]), become a low carbon (hard to say net zero yet) electrostate [3] that will continue to scale manufacturing clean tech for the world [4] with minimal carbon footprint.

It cannot be overstated how fast they are going.

[1] China Crosses Energy Milestone as Coal Falls Below 50% of Power - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49110187 - July 2026

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50132343 (citations)

- "As the power system integrates more renewables, the true value of batteries to China’s energy transition is becoming undeniable," Yang said. China added a record amount of new battery storage facilities in 2025, ending the year with more than half of global capacity. Growth has continued this year, with installed lithium-ion battery storage reaching almost 150 gigawatts by the end of the first quarter, according to Ember. The country is targeting 300 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by 2030, up from 136 at the end of 2025, in addition to expanding its fleet of longer-duration pumped hydro storage to around 160 gigawatts from 66.

[3] https://hn.algolia.com/?q=china+electrostate

[4] https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e...

[–] toomuchtodo 3 hours ago
China’s Batteries Move Beyond Capacity Scale-up: Utility-Scale Storage Could Have Shifted 23 TWh More Clean Power in 2025 - https://cleantechnica.com/2026/07/16/chinas-batteries-move-b... - July 16th, 2026
[–] _blk 16 hours ago
Can they procure their own uranium? Coal still has the advantage of being more local, much simpler, faster to get up and running. Smaller plants also means smaller distribution radius etc. so more infrastructure decentralization. I imagine that's part of the thought process too.
[–] throw-qqqqq 15 hours ago
> Can they procure their own uranium?

Nuclear power in China peaked around 2021 at ~5% of the total electricity mix. I don’t think it’s a factor.

China likes renewable and batteries because it’s the cheapest way to generate power. It’s cheaper to build solar plus battery storage, than building new coal plants.

[–] lnsru 16 hours ago
In the case of armed conflict with the West all Chinese inverters will be weaponized to burn homes in the West. The shops will be empty in the West and West will be in very ugly situation outsourcing all the manufacturing. Better it doesn’t happen.