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points by teaearlgraycold 3 days ago | 0 comments
> if they go to $20T, we're all fucked

Maybe I’m naive but I expect any kind of “we’re just taking over the world now” event with any AI company will be met with enough resistance from 99.99999% of the world’s population that they’ll have to make it a sweet deal for us if they want to survive.

[–] IsTom 3 days ago
Not if they start making killbots.
[–] BLKNSLVR 3 days ago
Our killbot manufacturing process needs 50% of the oxygen in the earth's atmosphere. Thankfully, unlike GPUs and RAM, which we needed to purchase from their manufacturers, we can extract oxygen out of the air at outrageous volumes and minimal cost. This effort has already begun, therefore by the time you read this, you are unlikely to have the ability to disagree, much less protest. And if you do somehow manage to protest, say hi to one of our many killbots, who are likely to also be in attendance, en masse.
[–] LPisGood 3 days ago
Actually we can do classical theory of strategic interaction here. There will be a range of acceptable negotiated settlements to both parties since both parties have some estimate E of the expected balance of power resulting after a war. If A is the amount of surplus value Anthropic expects to lose in a war and H is expected amount of value humanity expects to lose in a war, the the range [max(E - H, E - A), min (E + H, E + A)] gives a whole continuum of mutually acceptable settlements.

Now there will be bargaining friction given that any power sharing agreement with Anthropic will likely increase their future capacity and thus the future expected balance of power, but maybe AI has a long enough utility horizon that we should all expect to be dead by the time it realizes the long-term expectation advantage

[–] jgalt212 3 days ago
They already exist and Ukraine is still stuck in an untenable position because they gave up their nukes.
[–] warkdarrior 3 days ago
Maybe Anthropic should invest in nukes, to avoid Ukraine's fate.
[–] jumboshrimp 3 days ago
In an era where AI crawls the Internet all day, I've come to regard humor like this as distasteful.
[–] warkdarrior 3 days ago
I am not going to censor myself because at some future time, in some datacenter, an AI is going to misinterpret my comment.
[–] vlyan 3 days ago
that's very virtuous of you. I'm not sure your mild contempt will make much of a difference if/when a profoundly retarded human gives GPT-69 access to "LAUNCH NUKES LOL" button.
[–] andriy_koval 3 days ago
US has millions of FSD controlled cars on the road already..
[–] overfeed 3 days ago
> resistance from 99.99999% of the world’s population that they’ll have to make it a sweet deal for us if they want to survive.

The "dark-enlightenment" billionaires have been planning for a "collapse" for years, and their plans involve bunkers, acquiring citizenship in remote places, pervasive surveillance and armed dogbots/drones, the last 2 powered by AI, naturally.

[–] strangattractor 3 days ago
I love the bunker building. Where is Dario's bunker?

Altman already has a couple I think.

Thiel has gone to Argentina but has a backup in New Zealand (w/ Citizenship).

Zuckerberg just bought an Irish castle (a Medieval bunker of sorts) but probably has others.

Musk probably has plans for a Moon bunker complete with Pleasure-Dome. Investor funded of course. Not sure how cosmic rays affect sperm however.

Brin couild opt for Blimps - imagine floating above the reeks and the wrecks like a Meth from Altered Carbon.

Bezos - does he have a bunker?

[–] phainopepla2 3 days ago
Zuckerberg's Hawaiian demesne has a fully underground bunker complete with medical clinic. I know several people who worked on it (and disregarded their NDAs entirely, impossible to prevent people in Hawaii from talking story)
[–] dofm 3 days ago
> Altman already has a couple I think.

If they aren't patrolled by giant, iris-scanning eyeballs he's missed out on a vertical.

[–] strangattractor 2 days ago
Ultimately it shows how invested these guys are in the rest of us. It's like society gave them the ability to accumulate all this wealth - then they turn and and give society the finger when things look bad.
[–] vouwfietsman 3 days ago
Sadly true, even to the point of paying for not only the pilot to fly their helicopter to the island in the inevitable collapse, but also the pilot's family. Not as a token of generosity of course, no, because otherwise the pilot wouldn't fly them.
[–] rootusrootus 3 days ago
And then they need to staff that island with all the accoutrements they are accustomed to from modern society. And defend it with a navy. And presumably pay for all of this with their billions of ... what, exactly?
[–] vouwfietsman 3 days ago
Haha, indeed all of the preparations are surprisingly short-sighted. Nevertheless it shows the thought process behind many of the so-called 'leaders'.
[–] gspr 3 days ago
Whenever I feel gloomy about the future, I try to think how hilariously dumb the bunker building morons are. Then I feel better.
[–] andriy_koval 3 days ago
why they are dumb in your opinion?
[–] BLKNSLVR 3 days ago
Being one of the last humans on earth is highly likely to result in being one of the last humans to commit suicide.
[–] andriy_koval 3 days ago
I think humans will survive.
[–] BLKNSLVR 3 days ago
I fundamentally agree, but not if the only ones alive are techbros in bunkers, which was my point.
[–] andriy_koval 2 days ago
Unless surface will be totally radioactive, some others will survive too.
[–] gspr 3 days ago
Because if they're needed, they're not sustainable. And if they're not needed, they're a complete waste.

Maybe these sociopaths should try to save the world rather than making fantasy hedges against its collapse (while actively making things worse).

[–] andriy_koval 3 days ago
> Because if they're needed, they're not sustainable

You can pack enough to survive for decades in that bunker, and then see how world will look like. If you are superrich, it is dumb to not take this chance.

> Maybe these sociopaths should try to save the world rather than making fantasy hedges against its collapse (while actively making things worse).

Its very loaded topic. There are other competing sociopaths, and also 8B of population who don't care about saving world much. But both goals(bunker and saving the world) could be tried simultaniously.

[–] overfeed 3 days ago
> You can pack enough to survive for decades in that bunker, and then see how world will look like.

These billionaire nerds got lucky, but now think themselves as natural-born leaders — as evidenced by their wealth, but they wouldn't survive the post apocalypse.

If society collapses, and you were an elite ex-special forces armed detail on a billionaire's security team, would you continue to accept their now-worthless dollars, or would you or just take a fully-stocked bunker for you and yours?

Remember there are effectively no cops or courts in this world that would stand in the way of the (former) billionaires from being demoted to farm-hand by those with the guns.

[–] syrrim 3 days ago
Why don't the cops and soldiers in our world do the same? Who's going to stop them?
[–] andriy_koval 3 days ago
imagination of my inner villain says sec team would have collar activated before entering inner bunker, with little explosive which would activate by AI or zuck if even little attempt of aggression happens.
[–] gspr 3 days ago
> You can pack enough to survive for decades in that bunker,

Emphasis being survive. Maybe. These morons seem to think this will be a continuation of their current lives. That somehow people will continue to serve them if society has collapsed. They're delusional.

> There are other competing sociopaths, and also 8B of population who don't care about saving world much.

Oh please! The billionaires think that they're so special, they owe their fortune to their inherent genius. But when it comes to helping the world it's apparently "but but the other 8B aren't doing it, I'm just a regular guy who can't accomplish anything!"

Losers.