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points by HexnMarcusWolfe 3 days ago | 0 comments
It's been cheaper than nuclear for a while now, it was only a matter of time.

Personally i'm waiting for the next iterations of Kesterite cells.

If we can get single cells to crack ~20% efficiency. With a tandem cell architecture, it's going to become the new standard overnight.

Durability of silicon cells or better, but orders of magnitude $ cheaper to produce, and without the need to use toxic agents as in perovskite cells.

We're movin' fast.

For over a decade we were stuck at ~12% efficiency. And in the last 4 years (probably with AI help) we've cracked 15% efficiency

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/chinese-researcher...

Few more years, and with a bit of luck, we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now.

[–] ipdashc 3 days ago
> we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now

I get the impression they're already really damn cheap, to the point that the issues are more so with grid interconnections, land use, and storage

[–] Maxion 3 days ago
Installation labour cost and inverter cost are now the largest expenses.

I wonder if as panel costs goes down, will people start to wire their homes again for 48V DC? You could conceivably run your HVAC and fridges at least off of it, this would negate the need for a larger (more costly) inverter.

[–] greggsy 3 days ago
Unless you build from scratch, and white box stores suddenly start selling a 48v version of every standard household appliance (with industrial supply chain to support that market), inverters are not going anywhere.

The only place it makes sense is personal tech and computing, where USB chargers are cheap and ubiquitous, with technology replacement in 2-5 years instead of 5-10 for standard appliances.

[–] novok 3 days ago
it would probably slowly start coming out as dual ac and dc connections and start with "garage appliances" like your laundry, central ac / vac and car charger since the garage is the cheapest place to wire something into.
[–] ErroneousBosh 2 days ago
I run my garden tools and shed on a 1.2kVA 12V inverter, bought for pennies off eBay. It's just about enough to run my little "lunchbox" flux-core welder on a low enough setting to do thin metal and tubing, perfect for sticking exhaust pipes and such together.
[–] speleding 2 days ago
I read an article about a house that was converted to use DC instead of AC as a trial. The most surprising part to me was that most household appliances simply kept working because they already contain a AC/DC rectifier anyway which works fine if you connect it to DC.
[–] bluGill 2 days ago
That depends. Anything with a transformer will not work on DC. Some power supplies don't have a transformer directly connected to mains and they will just work. A large number of appliances use universal motors (anything in your kitchen) and so they will just work. Heaters are typically just resistance and again will just work.

However there are a lot of things that won't work on DC as well. Since very few people are running mains voltage DC labels often will not tell you if it will work. (I've toured ships with mains voltage DC and those outlets are labeled - I assume the crew is trained - or perhaps was since this is just a museum now and I'm not sure if current ships use DC)

[–] treis 2 days ago
"just work" depends on the DC voltage, right? A heater works just fine on 120V DC but less well on 48 and probably pointless on 5.
[–] dalyons 2 days ago
wait what. rectifiers will just seamlessly work on DC? TIL thats wild
[–] HexnMarcusWolfe 2 days ago
Fridges is doubtful. But HVAC... yeah i'd put that at increased possibility because you probably won't have to rewire your house to do it.
[–] pyrale 2 days ago
> Installation labour cost and inverter cost are now the largest expenses.

That's true for the solar development project, but such a project typically ignores grid costs.

[–] anonu 2 days ago
so Edison's dream will finally come to be
[–] cowlevel 3 days ago
Why not 120V DC?
[–] Maxion 3 days ago
Mainly thinking 48V as that is already a standard in the marine and automotive world. AFAIK 120V DC is not a commonly used standard ? (Maybe in aviation?)
[–] atoav 3 days ago
Most modern aircraft have a 400V 360-800Hz three-phase grid, as this allows thinner (read:lighter) conductors. There are some high voltage DC rails on some plains in the range 270VDC or ±270VDC.

On the usage side for instrumentation, avionics etc. it is usually 28 VDC.

[–] cestith 2 days ago
48V DC is also common in the telecommunications world and available in the data center world.
[–] atoav 3 days ago
1. It is not considered safe voltage, so you have all the downsides of the current AC grid with the downsides of high DC voltages

2. Nearly no equipment uses 120VDC by itself, so you would need specialized DC-DC converters that can deal with the 120VDC input to go down to usual voltages like 48VD, 24VDC or 12VDC

[–] lstodd 3 days ago
DC also has issues with arcing, so switches get complicated and expensive.
[–] ErroneousBosh 2 days ago
> Nearly no equipment uses 120VDC by itself, so you would need specialized DC-DC converters that can deal with the 120VDC input to go down to usual voltages like 48VD, 24VDC or 12VDC

Most switched-mode power supplies ought to cope with 120V DC. If you look at a circuit diagram the first thing they go through is a bridge rectifier and smoothing cap to provide a 165V (or 340V outside the US!) DC supply for the chopper.

I have some Thinkpad charging bricks I'm prepared to sacrifice for the cause, if you want me to try it.

[–] Leif24 2 days ago
Well, one potential issue that springs to mind is that DC 120V might overstress the diodes in the full bridge rectifier. With 120V AC only 2 of the 4 diodes are active at any one time and on average each of them is on only half the time - with DC only 2 of the diodes would be active, but they would be active 100% of time. Say the power supply needs to draw 1A of current, a reasonable good estimate for the voltage drop of a forward biased diode is 0.7V, so each diode that is on will dissipate 1A*0.7V = 0.7W. With AC, each diode would only be on half the time, meaning it would dissipate an average of 0.35W. With DC, 2 of the 4 diodes would be on constantly dissipating the full 0.7W each - this will result in the two diodes getting much hotter. Ask yourself how likely it is that most power supply manufacturers are designing in a safety margin of *2X*...

And that's just dealing with power supplies for electronics (which mostly just want low voltage DC) - if you get into appliances, while almost all will have a power supply that converts to DC, they usually have some circuits that use AC directly (think heating elements, safety critical sensors that use the 60Hz AC waveform as part of their feedback to make sure they haven't locked up, etc). Even appliances that convert the AC input straight to DC (think anything using an inverter to drive a motor or compressor) will often use a voltage doubler circuit to get a DC bus that is ~340V from the 120V AC input (it doubles the peak voltage, which is actually ~170V and not 120V in US) ... The voltage doubler circuit will not infact double a DC input, and the appliance will likely be most unhappy when it's DC bus is a lot lower than it was designed for.

[–] ErroneousBosh 1 day ago
> Well, one potential issue that springs to mind is that DC 120V might overstress the diodes in the full bridge rectifier.

I see what you're saying but it's a bit theoretical. Nothing in a switcher is run at that tight a tolerance, because in normal operation the load will be highly variable. One of the el-cheapo switching PSUs I have on my bench right now is rated for 90V to 270V, for example, and will run quite happily fully loaded across that full range (and considerably beyond - my variac goes from 0 to about 300V output).

> they usually have some circuits that use AC directly

AC motors won't enjoy it, but heating elements won't be affected.

If you look at the switching power supplies used for network equipment that often actually *does* have ratings for DC operation.

[–] atoav 2 days ago
Diodes may not like a constant DC load like that. In any case you're now definily running that equipment out of spec and totally at fault for any damages to the equipment, buildings and people stemming from that, so you better know for sure that that specific power supply can handle it.

I am not saying there isn't anything that can handle this out there, what I am saying is nothing is rated for handling it and this is experimental territory.

[–] ErroneousBosh 1 day ago
Diodes are used with a constant DC load all the time.

Look at any power supply where you don't want a downstream regulator's decoupling capacitors to have an effect on other regulators.

[–] pjc50 3 days ago
50V is the limit for "safe extra low voltage" rules. Considered to be touch safe.
[–] bradfa 2 days ago
SELV usually is defined to have both a voltage limit and a volt-amp (ie: power) limit. Generally defined somewhere around 60V peak to peak and 250V*A.

48V is under the SELV voltage limit, even with some margins.

But historically, some countries have had lower limits. I recall Japan being one of them for a while. I'm not confident that SELV is a harmonized standard worldwide, or at least it wasn't until recently, if it is now.

[–] 3D30497420 3 days ago
It would be great to work on my home's electrical system without the risk of straight-up killing myself. Especially considering most of the things I plug into my wall (lighting, TVs, tablets, phones, etc.) don't need to draw anything like 120/240V. I've debated installing low volt circuits for things like lighting and such, but I think the hassle won't make it worth it.
[–] gosub100 2 days ago
I don't think it's that dangerous to work with 120v. There's arguably a greater risk with DC starting fires and killing you that way, or burning your house down.

IANAEE, but DC does most of its work with current instead of voltage. So direct shorts are more likely to turn into heating elements (you have to run thicker wire anyway to do the same amount of work). AC can detect and trip faster.

Also, adding/removing loads is more finicky with DC. It affects all the other things on the line much more dramatically than AC.

If I had the time and money to work on this, I would focus on powering heavy appliances with solar and just paying the power co for all the wall wart electronics. Getting a heat pump working with a thermal battery (water tank with heat exchanger), etc. Separate circuit for electric space heaters (with extra consideration for fire safety), and smart thermostat that runs extra heating/cooling beyond what I requested when the sun is shining, to try using the house's thermal storage.

[–] Thlom 2 days ago
You can run your lights over ethernet. :)
[–] inamberclad 3 days ago
Hopefully we can move to a micro solar system where everyone is responsible for a fraction of the generation and storage
[–] HexnMarcusWolfe 2 days ago
Probably won't happen. Federating the responsibility for overall energy capacity, government ain't gonna do that. You'll be responsible for your own generation / storage.

Tho' something interesting. Those with large enough arrays can use their excess to produce nitrogen fertilizer via cold plasma.

This would either allow them to store value in that (for sale to farmers / national stockpile) which may give better yields then storing via batteries and selling back to the grid. Or they could use it to grow their own produce making them self reliant and less dependent on supermarket chains and by extension their dependency on fossil fuel use in their distribution networks.

[–] pixl97 2 days ago
>produce nitrogen fertilizer

Oh jesus christ, I don't want the average person doing this, nor any unregulated entities doing so. This is how you end up killing a bunch of people.

[–] ErroneousBosh 2 days ago
I've been rednecking up some panels and storage and I'm buying second-hand 250Wish panels about 10p/watt.

It's already getting close to "not really economic" to buy second-hand panels, because people have slightly inflated prices for them, but the way I look at it I get a nice run out to somewhere, have a nice lunch in a cafe, and come back with a couple of kW of panels for about as much as a tank of fuel.

New panels just get cheaper and cheaper and better and better, and you can often find clearance deals on 400W-ish panels for ridiculously low prices.

[–] syshyk 2 days ago
Brackets cost more than the panels here.
[–] micw 3 days ago
> we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now

I doubt that. Currently the cells itself makes only <50% (maybe <30% meanwhile) of a PV module. So the limit to the bottom is by the glass and frame and cable, not by the cells.

But $/watts can significantly go down with more efficiency.

[–] LeonM 3 days ago
I found most people fixate on the price of the cells/panels, but forget that the rest of the installation required to use said panels easily exceeds the price of the panels by a factor of 3~4. Think mounting hardware, cabling, inverters, batteries, control hardware, labour, etc. It all adds up.

I've been pricing a PV system recently, and I was surprised at how low the price of panels already is. In most estimates I received the panels itself were less than 20% of the total installation costs. Granted, I am looking at a 3-phase system with plenty of battery capacity. For a more typical household setup with 1-phase and moderate battery capacity that percentage will shift a bit.

In my case the quotes are roughly: 40x430Wp panels (~€4000), 3x (3-phase) inverter/chargers (~€5000), batteries (~€5000), auxiliaries (~€1500), cabling (~€2000), mounting hardware (~€2500), labor (~€5000), planning/permissions (~€1000). So total project price is ~25k, of which the panels are only ~€4000. And that doesn't even count the construction of a utility building to house the batteries and inverters, the EV chargers, etc.

On a side note: I found that battery prices have also dropped significantly already. If you're willing to do some assembly yourself you can get ~15kWh of LiFePO4 for just over €1k.

Also, for those wondering: for my situation the ROI of this setup is expected to be about 5 years. This will be quicker if I get an EV, which I am planning on.

[–] sandworm101 2 days ago
Micro plug-in panels address the pricing issues. If every panel has a built-in inverter/controller then everything can be wired at the factory, radically reducing costs. As they are all pushing AC then they can all be plugged in to household outlets without electricians getting involved. Mounting remains an issue but as purchase costs come down the need for a perfect mounting system diminishes.
[–] TedDoesntTalk 2 days ago
ROI on 25000 EUR in 5 years?? How are you spending 5000+ EUR per year on electricity?
[–] LeonM 1 day ago
> How are you spending 5000+ EUR per year on electricity?

Energy prices are high in my country, and price spikes have become more frequent.

My house is currently heated by natural gas, which costs about €200/month avg plus another €550/year in standing charges. Prices for natural gas is expected to rise. By switching to heat pumps and induction cooktop I can disconnect from the gas distribution grid completely. This will safe about €3k in gas costs annually (against current rates) but obviously increase my electricity usage significantly. So in my country €5k/year in electricity isn't as ridiculous as it sounds.

I'm projecting my electricity consumption to be ~€3.5k a year once I have fully switched to electric heating, so this is where generating my own electricity starts to make sense.

The PV array I'm planning is very much over dimensioned for my use. To make financial sense my PV installation must produce more than I consume over the year. Not only will my electricity bill be effectively €0, I will also be able sell overproduction back to the grid during summer. By using variable rate discharging I can optimize the return. I am projecting that selling overproduction will net about €1k annually.

The rest comes from from dynamic energy tariff trading. The battery will be used as a grid stabiliser, so it'll charge (from the grid) when electricity is cheap/negative and discharge back to the grid when return rate is high. This is projected to net another €500~€1000 annually.

If I add an EV I'll safe about 3k/year in fuel, though my electricity use will obviously go up, I won't have as much overproduction anymore.

In my country PV only really makes sense when it's combined with batteries and connected to the grid with a variable rate contract. The more battery capacity you have the more value/income it can create stabilising the grid. So really the price per kWh of battery capacity is the driving force in the ROI of a PV setup.

[–] slybot 2 days ago
> It's been cheaper than nuclear for a while now, it was only a matter of time.

AFAIK the latest research contradicts to this [1], can you give some links if you have for this?

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192...

[–] holgerschurig 2 days ago
Well, no. This one is one thousands of studies on it. And they narrowed things down (e.g. only looking at Denmark) and setting their projected numbers exactly so that the desired outcome arrived.

And usually (I did not read into detail here) the total cost of energy is never calculated.

In Europe, nuclear power plants usually don't have an insurance. It's the state that pays of the cleanup after an aftermath. So total cost is socialized.

Few countries have final deposits. With current technology, you need to operate them for thousands of years (e.g. guard them, so that no terrorists can get the material for "dirty bombs"). None of these total-cost studies calculates this in.

Many countries don't have their own source of uranium or the fabs to bring it up for usage in power plants. So it happens that by betting on solar, you bet on the goodwill of some external country. Did you know that most nuclear related companies worldwide used to be owned by the russian RosAtom? I have no idea if that is still true now after 5 years of war against Ukraine, so maybe the odd country seized mines or enrichment plants. But RosAtom owned stuff abroad, like Canada or Australia. Finding new ways if some terrorist country like russia suddenly ceases to supply you (like they did with gas) has a very high oppertunity cost. These studies usually don't plan in "second source" economic calculations.

In Germany, the four big electric power companies (e.g. Vattenfall, EON etc) say since decades that they don't want to open new nuclear power plants. Since it is not economically feasible. If the TCO would really be spectacular, then they would say differently. In those places, where they still open nuclear plants, like France, even a single block costs billions. I mean, one block estimated to cost 3 billion euro was costing 27 billion. Do these fabricated studies calculate in this grave error of factor 12? In France, EDF only works because it is state backed. If the TCO would be any good, they would swim in money like the senior Uncle Duck.

[–] directevolve 2 days ago
Solar is getting very cheap, but the land footprint requirement is enormous compared to nuclear.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E0W1ZZYIV8o

[–] underdeserver 2 days ago
Why only 20%? Is there a theoretical maximum?
[–] reportingsjr 2 days ago
The theoretical maximum for the mentioned cell is around 32-33%, just a touch higher than the theoretical limit for silicon.
[–] HexnMarcusWolfe 2 days ago
The Shockley–Queisser limit still applies i.e. with the current understanding of physics the limit for single cell is ~33%

I said ~20% because that's the minimum required to bring it to commercial market while being competitive. If they go more, great, bonus.