Personally i'm waiting for the next iterations of Kesterite cells.
If we can get single cells to crack ~20% efficiency. With a tandem cell architecture, it's going to become the new standard overnight.
Durability of silicon cells or better, but orders of magnitude $ cheaper to produce, and without the need to use toxic agents as in perovskite cells.
We're movin' fast.
For over a decade we were stuck at ~12% efficiency. And in the last 4 years (probably with AI help) we've cracked 15% efficiency
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/chinese-researcher...
Few more years, and with a bit of luck, we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now.
[–] ipdashc 3 days ago
[–] Maxion 3 days ago
I wonder if as panel costs goes down, will people start to wire their homes again for 48V DC? You could conceivably run your HVAC and fridges at least off of it, this would negate the need for a larger (more costly) inverter.
[–] greggsy 3 days ago
The only place it makes sense is personal tech and computing, where USB chargers are cheap and ubiquitous, with technology replacement in 2-5 years instead of 5-10 for standard appliances.
[–] novok 3 days ago
[–] ErroneousBosh 2 days ago
[–] speleding 2 days ago
[–] bluGill 2 days ago
However there are a lot of things that won't work on DC as well. Since very few people are running mains voltage DC labels often will not tell you if it will work. (I've toured ships with mains voltage DC and those outlets are labeled - I assume the crew is trained - or perhaps was since this is just a museum now and I'm not sure if current ships use DC)
[–] treis 2 days ago
[–] dalyons 2 days ago
[–] HexnMarcusWolfe 2 days ago
[–] pyrale 2 days ago
That's true for the solar development project, but such a project typically ignores grid costs.
[–] anonu 2 days ago
[–] cowlevel 3 days ago
[–] Maxion 3 days ago
[–] atoav 3 days ago
On the usage side for instrumentation, avionics etc. it is usually 28 VDC.
[–] cestith 2 days ago
[–] atoav 3 days ago
2. Nearly no equipment uses 120VDC by itself, so you would need specialized DC-DC converters that can deal with the 120VDC input to go down to usual voltages like 48VD, 24VDC or 12VDC
[–] lstodd 3 days ago
[–] ErroneousBosh 2 days ago
Most switched-mode power supplies ought to cope with 120V DC. If you look at a circuit diagram the first thing they go through is a bridge rectifier and smoothing cap to provide a 165V (or 340V outside the US!) DC supply for the chopper.
I have some Thinkpad charging bricks I'm prepared to sacrifice for the cause, if you want me to try it.
[–] Leif24 2 days ago
And that's just dealing with power supplies for electronics (which mostly just want low voltage DC) - if you get into appliances, while almost all will have a power supply that converts to DC, they usually have some circuits that use AC directly (think heating elements, safety critical sensors that use the 60Hz AC waveform as part of their feedback to make sure they haven't locked up, etc). Even appliances that convert the AC input straight to DC (think anything using an inverter to drive a motor or compressor) will often use a voltage doubler circuit to get a DC bus that is ~340V from the 120V AC input (it doubles the peak voltage, which is actually ~170V and not 120V in US) ... The voltage doubler circuit will not infact double a DC input, and the appliance will likely be most unhappy when it's DC bus is a lot lower than it was designed for.
[–] ErroneousBosh 1 day ago
I see what you're saying but it's a bit theoretical. Nothing in a switcher is run at that tight a tolerance, because in normal operation the load will be highly variable. One of the el-cheapo switching PSUs I have on my bench right now is rated for 90V to 270V, for example, and will run quite happily fully loaded across that full range (and considerably beyond - my variac goes from 0 to about 300V output).
> they usually have some circuits that use AC directly
AC motors won't enjoy it, but heating elements won't be affected.
If you look at the switching power supplies used for network equipment that often actually *does* have ratings for DC operation.
[–] atoav 2 days ago
I am not saying there isn't anything that can handle this out there, what I am saying is nothing is rated for handling it and this is experimental territory.
[–] ErroneousBosh 1 day ago
Look at any power supply where you don't want a downstream regulator's decoupling capacitors to have an effect on other regulators.
[–] pjc50 3 days ago
[–] bradfa 2 days ago
48V is under the SELV voltage limit, even with some margins.
But historically, some countries have had lower limits. I recall Japan being one of them for a while. I'm not confident that SELV is a harmonized standard worldwide, or at least it wasn't until recently, if it is now.
[–] 3D30497420 3 days ago
[–] gosub100 2 days ago
IANAEE, but DC does most of its work with current instead of voltage. So direct shorts are more likely to turn into heating elements (you have to run thicker wire anyway to do the same amount of work). AC can detect and trip faster.
Also, adding/removing loads is more finicky with DC. It affects all the other things on the line much more dramatically than AC.
If I had the time and money to work on this, I would focus on powering heavy appliances with solar and just paying the power co for all the wall wart electronics. Getting a heat pump working with a thermal battery (water tank with heat exchanger), etc. Separate circuit for electric space heaters (with extra consideration for fire safety), and smart thermostat that runs extra heating/cooling beyond what I requested when the sun is shining, to try using the house's thermal storage.
[–] Thlom 2 days ago
[–] inamberclad 3 days ago
[–] HexnMarcusWolfe 2 days ago
Tho' something interesting. Those with large enough arrays can use their excess to produce nitrogen fertilizer via cold plasma.
This would either allow them to store value in that (for sale to farmers / national stockpile) which may give better yields then storing via batteries and selling back to the grid. Or they could use it to grow their own produce making them self reliant and less dependent on supermarket chains and by extension their dependency on fossil fuel use in their distribution networks.
[–] pixl97 2 days ago
Oh jesus christ, I don't want the average person doing this, nor any unregulated entities doing so. This is how you end up killing a bunch of people.
[–] ErroneousBosh 2 days ago
It's already getting close to "not really economic" to buy second-hand panels, because people have slightly inflated prices for them, but the way I look at it I get a nice run out to somewhere, have a nice lunch in a cafe, and come back with a couple of kW of panels for about as much as a tank of fuel.
New panels just get cheaper and cheaper and better and better, and you can often find clearance deals on 400W-ish panels for ridiculously low prices.
[–] syshyk 2 days ago
[–] micw 3 days ago
I doubt that. Currently the cells itself makes only <50% (maybe <30% meanwhile) of a PV module. So the limit to the bottom is by the glass and frame and cable, not by the cells.
But $/watts can significantly go down with more efficiency.
[–] LeonM 3 days ago
I've been pricing a PV system recently, and I was surprised at how low the price of panels already is. In most estimates I received the panels itself were less than 20% of the total installation costs. Granted, I am looking at a 3-phase system with plenty of battery capacity. For a more typical household setup with 1-phase and moderate battery capacity that percentage will shift a bit.
In my case the quotes are roughly: 40x430Wp panels (~€4000), 3x (3-phase) inverter/chargers (~€5000), batteries (~€5000), auxiliaries (~€1500), cabling (~€2000), mounting hardware (~€2500), labor (~€5000), planning/permissions (~€1000). So total project price is ~25k, of which the panels are only ~€4000. And that doesn't even count the construction of a utility building to house the batteries and inverters, the EV chargers, etc.
On a side note: I found that battery prices have also dropped significantly already. If you're willing to do some assembly yourself you can get ~15kWh of LiFePO4 for just over €1k.
Also, for those wondering: for my situation the ROI of this setup is expected to be about 5 years. This will be quicker if I get an EV, which I am planning on.
[–] sandworm101 2 days ago
[–] TedDoesntTalk 2 days ago
[–] LeonM 1 day ago
Energy prices are high in my country, and price spikes have become more frequent.
My house is currently heated by natural gas, which costs about €200/month avg plus another €550/year in standing charges. Prices for natural gas is expected to rise. By switching to heat pumps and induction cooktop I can disconnect from the gas distribution grid completely. This will safe about €3k in gas costs annually (against current rates) but obviously increase my electricity usage significantly. So in my country €5k/year in electricity isn't as ridiculous as it sounds.
I'm projecting my electricity consumption to be ~€3.5k a year once I have fully switched to electric heating, so this is where generating my own electricity starts to make sense.
The PV array I'm planning is very much over dimensioned for my use. To make financial sense my PV installation must produce more than I consume over the year. Not only will my electricity bill be effectively €0, I will also be able sell overproduction back to the grid during summer. By using variable rate discharging I can optimize the return. I am projecting that selling overproduction will net about €1k annually.
The rest comes from from dynamic energy tariff trading. The battery will be used as a grid stabiliser, so it'll charge (from the grid) when electricity is cheap/negative and discharge back to the grid when return rate is high. This is projected to net another €500~€1000 annually.
If I add an EV I'll safe about 3k/year in fuel, though my electricity use will obviously go up, I won't have as much overproduction anymore.
In my country PV only really makes sense when it's combined with batteries and connected to the grid with a variable rate contract. The more battery capacity you have the more value/income it can create stabilising the grid. So really the price per kWh of battery capacity is the driving force in the ROI of a PV setup.
[–] slybot 2 days ago
AFAIK the latest research contradicts to this [1], can you give some links if you have for this?
[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192...
[–] holgerschurig 2 days ago
And usually (I did not read into detail here) the total cost of energy is never calculated.
In Europe, nuclear power plants usually don't have an insurance. It's the state that pays of the cleanup after an aftermath. So total cost is socialized.
Few countries have final deposits. With current technology, you need to operate them for thousands of years (e.g. guard them, so that no terrorists can get the material for "dirty bombs"). None of these total-cost studies calculates this in.
Many countries don't have their own source of uranium or the fabs to bring it up for usage in power plants. So it happens that by betting on solar, you bet on the goodwill of some external country. Did you know that most nuclear related companies worldwide used to be owned by the russian RosAtom? I have no idea if that is still true now after 5 years of war against Ukraine, so maybe the odd country seized mines or enrichment plants. But RosAtom owned stuff abroad, like Canada or Australia. Finding new ways if some terrorist country like russia suddenly ceases to supply you (like they did with gas) has a very high oppertunity cost. These studies usually don't plan in "second source" economic calculations.
In Germany, the four big electric power companies (e.g. Vattenfall, EON etc) say since decades that they don't want to open new nuclear power plants. Since it is not economically feasible. If the TCO would really be spectacular, then they would say differently. In those places, where they still open nuclear plants, like France, even a single block costs billions. I mean, one block estimated to cost 3 billion euro was costing 27 billion. Do these fabricated studies calculate in this grave error of factor 12? In France, EDF only works because it is state backed. If the TCO would be any good, they would swim in money like the senior Uncle Duck.
[–] directevolve 2 days ago
[–] underdeserver 2 days ago
[–] reportingsjr 2 days ago
[–] HexnMarcusWolfe 2 days ago
I said ~20% because that's the minimum required to bring it to commercial market while being competitive. If they go more, great, bonus.
I get the impression they're already really damn cheap, to the point that the issues are more so with grid interconnections, land use, and storage