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points by jibalt 3 days ago | 0 comments

The question was

> does this update your priors significantly in the direction of P=NP?

My answer is no ... and Aaronson's answer would also be no ... clearly he doesn't view a change from 3% to 5% to be significant ... his response downplayed the significance of !ETH in re NP?=P. So apparently you downvoted me for simply stating my own opinion while you completely misunderstood what it was an opinion of.

[–] baobabKoodaa 3 days ago

A change from 3% to 5% is significant. It's almost doubling the probability.

[–] maybeOneDay 2 days ago

Buying two lottery tickets doubles your probability of winning. Does it significantly move your priors?

[–] baobabKoodaa 2 days ago

Yes, it doubles the probability that I win the lotto. Yes, doubling a probability is significant. I'm not sure you're using the term "prior" correctly here, though.

[–] maybeOneDay 1 day ago

The "prior" is "am I going to win the lottery". It's borderline facetious to argue that buying two tickets significantly affects your probability.

[–] baobabKoodaa 1 day ago

As I said, it doubles the probability. That is an easily verifiable fact. Not sure why you are calling it facetious. I feel like you are trying to make some point about small probabilities being effectively indistinguishable from zero, but for some reason you don't want to articulate that?

Anyway, 3% is very very clearly distinguishable from 0% and so is 5%.