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points by zmgsabst 2 days ago | 0 comments

If you chart money in your pocket per unit time, it takes a dip around 18 months where your average pay is less than your first month’s pay. (When I was there, using RSU numbers for that time.) Guess when average quitting time was?

HR swore it wasn’t on purpose and I was somehow measuring pay “wrong” by looking at money in my pocket over time; but knowing their HR, I’m sure the valleys in transition from signing bonus to vesting are intentional.

[–] evanwolf 2 days ago

Is this weeding out long termers (willing to wait years to vest) vs the impatient?

[–] zmgsabst 1 day ago

This is where Bayes bites in practice: we can know that impatient and long-minded behaviors are correlated to outcomes, ie p(quit | impatient), without the outcome meaningfully informing which case we have, ie p(impatient | quit).

That’s because people are complicated and do things for many reasons, so people quitting when we cut their pay might not tell us they’re impatient.

I suspect the intent is what you say, but I don’t think the outcome is.