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points by AngryData 3 days ago | 0 comments
Meanwhile we vent 95% of extracted helium into the atmosphere as an inconvenient waste gas.

If it is so important, why aren't all our gas wells extracting that helium? It is hard for me to see this as a ploy for anything other than raising helium prices for the few companies that do extract helium.

In anything that helium is critical for, the helium cost is inconsequential compared to both the cost of the other equipment that uses it, and the value gained from using that equipment.

[–] throw0101c 3 days ago
> If it is so important, why aren't all our gas wells extracting that helium?

Because until six months ago there was a cheap and convenient supply coming out of Persian Gulf states, and so its importance was not noticed (like so many other items that 'suddenly' became apparent when the supply was suddenly cut off).

[–] knappe 3 days ago
We've been having helium shortages for years:

> The current helium shortage is the fourth to occur since 2006 and is being caused by shutdowns at several major helium producers. The shortage has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, as Russia is one of the world’s top suppliers of helium.

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2022/6/24/helium-shortage...

I have a friend who teaches chemistry at a well known university that can no long run some labs because the equipment to run them needs, you guessed it, helium. This has been a long running problem that the Iran war has exacerbated, but is by no means the cause.

[–] fmajid 3 days ago
Sufficiently long that in the TV Series “The Big Bang Theory”, one subplot involves the characters buying helium from a black market dealer to perform their experiments
[–] throw0101c 3 days ago
> We've been having helium shortages for years:

If it was worth (i.e., profitable) the effort to create to new supply wouldn't someone have done it by now? If no one is willing to pay for the effort, why should anyone do it at a loss?

(Isn't this, in theory, what The Market™ is all about? If people really wanted something they'd be willing to pay more for it, and it would be an incentive for more supply.)

[–] FeloniousHam 2 days ago
Do you think The Market™ _won't_ mobilize in response to the price incentive?
[–] throw0101c 2 days ago
Well, if there's a shortage as GP's 2022† article states, and the demand is 'actually' there, wouldn't the proverbial "Econ 101" response be a rise in prices? Has there been such a rise?

† I've seen articles from 2019 discussing the (alleged?) shortage.

[–] ctmlr 3 days ago
I've heard Helium is a limited resource so if we have leaky wells here I think we should be preserving as much of that is possible, it's too bad it takes pressure from an unnecessary conflict to do the right thing here.
[–] throw0101c 3 days ago
> I've heard Helium is a limited resource […]

I've heard the same thing about petroleum. :)

[–] exe34 3 days ago
There are other sources of energy. With helium, once it's gone, there's nothing to replace it.
[–] thaumasiotes 3 days ago
Well, there is; you can just wait for more helium to be produced underground. That's the same method that provided the helium we have now.
[–] throw0101a 3 days ago
> Well, there is; you can just wait for more helium to be produced underground.

Funnily enough that seems to be the same idea for petroleum. :)

[–] liamwire 3 days ago
I have to ask: why the two accounts/alts with almost identical handles? Even if I suspect you’ll assert there’s no reason for me to assume you’re the same person as the GP.
[–] exe34 3 days ago
The waiting list for your mri is going to be very long.
[–] wongarsu 3 days ago
Jupiter's atmosphere is about 25% helium. And then there's the other gas giants, and the sun itself (also about a quarter helium)

We risk running out of cheap helium. But if you are willing to pay infinite money there is near-infinite helium

[–] A_D_E_P_T 3 days ago
Right now, even with infinite money, you have no way to extract helium from Jupiter and return it to Earth. (To say nothing of the Sun!)

Maybe with a couple hundred more years of technological development...

Our moon itself is said to have ~1M tons of very valuable Helium-3 in surface deposits, but even that's nigh impossible to harvest commercially right now.

[–] exe34 3 days ago
The rocket equation is a very harsh mistress.
[–] myphpgothacked 3 days ago
If you ask international relations scholars or people in the state department, they actually support the prevention of nuclear proliferation.

The general population typically are doves because they can't see the consequences 10-50 years out.

My PhD bud, a Bernie supporter, thinks we should have put boots on the ground by now. I generally agree.

I lived through North Korea getting nuclear weapons in my lifetime. Before they were the end of a joke, today we have to care about the opinions of that backwater. (And I read international relations structural realists as much as I drink coffee... The job of the hegemon is to maintain the status quo.)

[–] delecti 3 days ago
Iran already wasn't working on nuclear weapons (a confident assessment by our intelligence community across the past 20+ years). The JCPOA then gave us the ability to verify that for ourselves. Then we (metaphorically) blew up that agreement, and (literally) blew up their leader who was firmly opposed to developing nuclear weapons, and the new one doesn't feel the same.
[–] bluGill 3 days ago
Iran has long said they're not working on nuclear weapons. However, they have built a large stockpile of particles of rich uranium, which is something completely useless to have unless you're planning on building nuclear weapons. This stockpile was built under the previous leader, who you are trying to claim was opposed to developing them, and yet he knew. who you are trying to claim was opposed to developing them and yet he knew. Iran didn't have nuclear weapons, however for years they were only a few weeks away from having them. They had all the hard parts in place to build one. There's a reason to think they had plenty of experts who could do it. So far as we know they never actually built one but they absolutely could and this was done under the previous leader.
[–] jcranmer 3 days ago
The general assessment on Iran has long been that they aim to become a nuclear threshold state (have the ability to make nuclear weapons quickly (~1y timeline or less) should they need to), but not actually acquire nuclear weapons for themselves.
[–] spiderice 3 days ago
Surely you can see how that isn't much of a distinction. And even that is something that the west clearly should not allow.
[–] bigyabai 3 days ago
Iran has domestic uranium deposits. They design and build their own centrifuges, and had thousands of such centrifuges during the JCPOA. It's basically impossible to denuclearize them or prevent them from building a rudimentary reactor or bomb, and it has been that way for at least two decades.

Diplomacy was a proven path to prevent Iran from reaching for nuclear deterrence. The plan worked well for America and Iran, which is probably what motivated Likud to escalate the situation and force them both to pick sides.

[–] themaninthedark 3 days ago
Yes, democracy and trade are the proven paths for preventing conflicts. Just ask the Ukrainians how that is going for them, I am sure they are so glad that Germany was buying oil and gas from Russia.

>The controversial gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 (NS2) has become the symbol of Germany’s widely criticised energy and security policy, which sought to build political bridges through trade and at the same time supply companies with cheap fuels. However, it drove the country into a fatal dependence on Russian oil and gas. Years later, government documents from the 2010s and early 2020s reported by Süddeutsche Zeitung showed that former chancellor Angela Merkel sought to portray her government as neutral and lacking competence in regards to the "business project" Nord Stream 2 to the outside world and European partners, while supporting increased gas trade with Russia through several actions.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/gas-pipeline-nord...

[–] throw0101c 3 days ago
> Iran has long said they're not working on nuclear weapons. However, they have built a large stockpile of particles of rich uranium, which is something completely useless to have unless you're planning on building nuclear weapons.

After the JCPOA the stockpile went to zero (esp. >5% enrichment):

* https://www.statista.com/chart/23528/irans-stockpile-of--low...

* https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/status-irans-nuclear-...

* https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/11/18/the-de...

One year after the US left JCPOA (during Trump 1.0) the stockpile started going up again.

[–] delecti 3 days ago
They said they weren't working on nukes, and our intelligence community released assessments which agreed.

The level of enrichment they've been doing is higher than they need for power generation but it also isn't nearly enough to make nukes. A more reasonable explanation (given the assessments they aren't working on nukes) is that they were being deliberately provocative.

> So far as we know they never actually built one but they absolutely could and this was done under the previous leader

Right, they could, and didn't. Why? It was only 7 years from the discovery of fission to a proof of concept in the form of the trinity test. Either you assume a level of incompetence entirely divorced from Iran's efficacy on the international stage, or you accept they weren't trying.

[–] yyyk 3 days ago
>It also isn't nearly enough to make nukes

Enrichment % is very misleading. Natural is about 0.7%. 3.5% is halfway to 90%. The distance from 60% to 90% is tiny.

That's because the distance is calculated using the quantity of raw material that needs to be filtered and not the enrichment percent, the more pure, the less material needed, hence smaller distance to 90%.

>Right, they could, and didn't. Why?

Some people worked hard to ensure the latter would be very inadvisable for Iran. Being so close isn't a stable equilibrium though.

[–] fmajid 3 days ago
Ah but the geniuses Trump and Netanyahu assassinated the Iranian leader who had issued a fatwa banning nukes as unislamic so now all bets are off.
[–] themaninthedark 3 days ago
The intelligence assessment was very careful about what it said.

>A U.S. intelligence assessment says Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons at the moment but has ramped up activities that could help it develop them. https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-intelligence-b506...

So they were not actively building a nuke, only getting all the pieces together to build one ready....

Prior to the deal: >Iran initially possessed centrifuges sufficient for one nuclear weapon, but not for nuclear power. https://web.archive.org/web/20190709050018/https://www.polit...

After the deal was broken by Trump and Biden was trying to restart it.... >2023 : An IAEA report on the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant found that two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges were configured in a way "substantially different" from what Iran had previously declared. Iran claimed the difference was due to a human error.

>On 4 March(2023), Grossi met with Raisi and other top Iranian officials. Earlier, IAEA had detected uranium particles enriched up to 83.7% at Fordow. In the meantime, Iran gave assurances that it would reinstall monitoring equipment at sensitive locations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal

[–] yyyk 3 days ago
The JCPOA enrichment limits would have started to expire this year, and soon Iran could have completely legally enriched as much as it wanted - while getting hundreds of billions via JCPOA sanctions removal. Given what it took to get Iran to this state under sanctions, it would have been impossible to force it to renew the limits or give up anything on nukes. We'd have ended up with Iranian control of Hormuz at the very least, likely of Gulf as well.

Perhaps that's an acceptable cost of avoiding higher gas prices right now - except Iran would have had the capacity to decide these at will. It's a fair choice, but best to be aware of the consequences.

[–] AngryData 3 days ago
You don't think Iran would have renegotiated to extend it further? If not, why would they even bother top follow the agreement in the first place? The legality of what they do has never been a consideration, they are a sovereign nation.
[–] yyyk 3 days ago
>You don't think Iran would have renegotiated to extend it further?

Why would Iran want to do it? Iran could absolutely control Hormuz* and get a nuke at will** under the deal. At that point it can avoid sanctions by threatening the Gulf. Or demand other concessions for allowing the Gulf to operate. That's what it tries to do now, but from a much weaker position compared to the deal timeline.

* Take the real life prewar Iranian missile and drone strength, assume Iran had an extra couple of hundreds of billions to pour into it, no import limits by the UN, a less restive populace, etc.

** Breakout timeline being a week at most at end of expiry timeline. Probably the only way to keep the Gulf independent at that scenario would have been nuclear deterrence.

>If not, why would they even bother to follow the agreement in the first place?

Because Iran wasn't anywhere strong enough at the time to risk a war, but the existence of the agreement and general developments would have predictably changed the power balance in its favor.

>The legality of what they do has never been a consideration

Well, if you decide something is legal, it's much tougher to change one's mind and stop it later.

[–] varnaud 3 days ago
The world would be more safe if Iran had nuclear weapons (less American/Israeli/Saudi interventions in the middle east). They should have smuggled nukes from the collapsed soviet Russia or do whatever was necessary to produce nukes.

Nukes, (or thousands of artillery pointed at densely populated areas allied with a country with nukes) are the surest way maintain sovereignty in the mad world we live in.

[–] fmajid 3 days ago
The Saudis would then get nukes from Pakistan. The thought of MBS or a Wahhabism fanatic successor getting his hands on nukes is absolutely terrifying, far more than the Iranians or even Kim Jong Un.
[–] protocolture 3 days ago
>They should have smuggled nukes from the collapsed soviet Russia or do whatever was necessary to produce nukes.

The plan in Iran was always self sufficiency.

[–] jcranmer 3 days ago
I'm not really sold on the idea that nuclear weapons are a salve against conflict. The only real examples are North Korea not getting invaded and maybe tamping down some of the India-Pakistan conflicts (note that India and Pakistan have had armed conflict with each other since both acquired nuclear weapons!). On the contrary, we can see times where nuclear weapons seem to have emboldened leaders--Putin has definitely played the "you can't retaliate against my aggression, I'll nuke you" card, and the Cuban missile crisis had both the American and Soviet militaries stridently arguing for a nuclear first strike because going second would be so calamitous (it was avoided largely because both Kennedy and Khrushchev were reticent to do so).

One of the striking features of the last decade or so of global politics is the willingness of middle powers to arm and fuel regional conflicts, so I think it entirely plausible that a world where middle powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran gain nuclear weapons is one where, say, the Sudanese Civil War involves nukes.

[–] fyredge 3 days ago
> My PhD bud, a Bernie supporter, thinks we should have put boots on the ground by now. I generally agree.

I suspect that this belief has the same level of thought put into it as the "general populace". The crux of the issue is not Iran's nuclear proliferation, it's the hegemon's unreliability.

The US had the JCPOA, had allies for deterrence, and unilaterally decided to discard them in the name of inflation. One might argue that the electorate has decided that the US should no longer be a hegemon, and yet the administration still impose it's will on others.

There was a time when I believed that Iran was not a rational actor. That is not the case now. I can only hope that there are enough checks and balances to prevent other actors from acting too irrationally.

[–] 40four 3 days ago
Most importantly, semiconductor fabs cannot operate without it. I was unaware, but I saw an interesting 60 minutes piece in it the other day.

I hear what you’re saying, but it’s the same reason a lot of natural gas is flared off or vented at oil wells. Helium is less than 1% of the total feed gas coming off a well and it requires specialized equipment to be able to recover it, on top of a way to distribute it. In most cases depending on the mix of gases coming out, it’s simply not economical for the operator.

Even with the supply being under pressure and prices going up from Qatar’s supply being cut off, that still might not be enough for companies to build the infrastructure. It would be a huge gamble. Once traffic in the straight of Hormuz goes back to normal that could be a losing proposition.

[–] solyin 3 days ago
The government just needs to set the fines for natural gas flaring to be more than it would cost to capture it. The Pigouvian tax North Dakota set in 2014 just needs to be done for helium.
[–] bsder 3 days ago
> If it is so important, why aren't all our gas wells extracting that helium?

Because the free market considers any supplier but the cheapest to be inefficient and drives them out of business. Robustness of the supply chain is always less profitable.

Whether helium or eggs or toilet paper, we keep getting shown the results of this lesson over and over. And people refuse to learn.

[–] cma 3 days ago
If helium prices are raised by this won't that lower the threshold where it is considered a waste gas?
[–] Eddy_Viscosity2 3 days ago
the transition from waste gas to wasted gas.
[–] roosterIllusi0n 3 days ago
At some point we will be able to scrape the moon for helium or be able to manufacturer it with fusion reactors. None of that currently exists or has a path to exist. It would be a mistake for us to not force collection of that helium today. The oil and gas industry is swimming in cash because of iran. They can afford to collect it.

We should have mandatory recycling for all uses. Every use of helium should have to build recollection into their workflows.

[–] gonzalohm 3 days ago
Helium is really hard to store and transport
[–] selicos 3 days ago
Following the Helium Privatization Act of 1996 and the Helium Stewardship Act of 2013, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) completed the final sale of the reserve and its pipeline infrastructure to the industrial gas company Messer for $460 million in December 2024

Decades of work to hand over a critical resource to private hands.