Hacker News
points by Xeoncross 2 days ago | 0 comments
We're getting close to local AI being really useful. Before the M1 is dead we might have already seen a huge shift. In my mind, there are two types of macs: those that have the bandwidth to run local models (Max & Ultra) and those that don't (Base & Pro chips).

The generation doesn't mater as much to me as the memory bandwidth. When that day comes, I'd rather have a M1 Max 64GB over a M5 Pro 64GB.

[–] bitexploder 2 days ago
Local AI already is really useful. This has been true since Qwen Flash Next and Qwen 3.8 27B rolled out. The struggle with exactly 64GB of unified RAM is that you end up having to stream the engram table from SSD because you will need almost all of your 64GB to run QFN. A 27B dense model still runs a little slow, even on an M1 Max Mac. However if you have even an older gaming GPU with 12-16GB of RAM and enough system RAM you can run this model (QFN) at a very respectable token rate and intelligence level. It is a Sonnet 5 class model you can run at home. There are new quantization techniques that make these models very good at agentic tasks.

And now if you stretch you can run DeepSeek Flash 4.1.

And if you were willing to roll up your sleeves you could build your own AI lab at home and run this model and models like GLM Flash 5.3 and DeepSeek Flash V4.1 at lower quants. The budget GPUs (like V100) are kind of not budget now, but still <5K to acquire 128GB of fast VRAM that can compete with a 5090 and actually has a lot more interesting options available IMO.

[–] jonatron 2 days ago
Can share a good way of running Qwen 3.8 27B (or similar) on 16GB VRAM? I've been trying but I end up with either a heavily quantized model or a small context or a slow speed.
[–] bitexploder 2 days ago
Dense models are not well suited to this. Depends on your system, but most inference engines let you put the KV cache on the host. They should let you use "Q8" KV cache format as well which takes half the storage of bf16, the default format. You essentially are stuck at having to fit the entire dense model into VRAM because it must compute across the entire model every token. Without it being in VRAM it is slow. MoE models such as Qwen 35B with 3B active parameters are much friendlier to limited VRAM systems. This is why you see systems with 16GB of VRAM running something like DeepSeek Flash if they have a bit of spare system RAM. Usually not at any good token rate, but tolerable.

Dense models also don't like quantization as much and are less tolerant of it. There are some very interesting smaller models like https://huggingface.co/nvidia/NVIDIA-Nemotron-Labs-Dory1.0-4... Dory that I would check out. You need system RAM or to stream a larger MoE model from disk and it won't be fast. You need to specialize the models some to get quality results if you have very limited system resources.

[–] plqbfbv 2 days ago
I've benchmarked quite a few models on my 9070XT, and I basically gave up hope of using models locally: https://claude.ai/artifact/77pHgucqQNsmic8ZEnqdBA

I asked Claude to come up with 7 problems to solve that were not part of any benchmarks. Besides speed, I asked it to put together a scoring that would reflect models that perform well on the 7 problems and in a reasonable time-frame (RWS, the definition is in the artifact). I valued models that produced good answers in a reasonable time better than models that had very high throughput but kept spitting useless stuff. Overall, IIRC most of them still had a >30% chance of producing wrong/non-working replies.

I then tested Strata ( https://github.com/niko1221/strata ) and the results are not even close. You can basically ignore everything in that table and use Strata instead, you can use bigger/less-quantized models and have way better results. Basically any otherwise-decent model degrades noticeably at Q < 5, and KV cache at Q4 also contributes a lot.

Still, a 20$/mo Claude subscription is way cheaper/more efficient if you code 2-3h in the evening than running stuff locally, unless you really have hardware than can hold models that get most things right at the first try. You can iterate way faster and cover a lot more ground in 2-3h using a Claude subscription, or OpenRouter if you prefer to change models. You get faster replies that are 99% correct at the first try, whereas using the local model you'd be spending 30% of your time fixing things that don't work and prompting it to do better.

Nowadays I use the local model to delegate tasks that would burn a lot of tokens, like sifting through big data archives for indexing and such.

[–] bitexploder 2 days ago
QFN Q4 K XL Unsloth is basically identical to the bf16 model. It’s KL divergence is very very small. It is competitive with the full model. Also I benchmarked iq3 xxs on Strata for 3 days against deepswe and it scored better than the published benchnarks for the model. If the gsq rco quant prettain tasks fit well it is a great model quant. My data shows it takes 20% more tokens basically than q4 xl. A4 xl is within noise on all my repeated task benchmarks over the public model serving and my own runs of q8. I published the deeswe results. You have to be very specific about model choice and know these models and their quirks.

This is not about if a frontier AI provider is cheaper. It is about having control over your data and use of AI.

https://stealthgoat.com/fnfl/pelicans.html

Also YMMV in “faster” — I have less than 5K into my home AI lab shenanigans and it’s pretty fast :)

[–] plqbfbv 2 days ago
> QFN Q4 K XL Unsloth is basically identical to the bf16 model.

Yes, but like original poster I have 16GB of VRAM and 64GB of RAM, I was referring to non-Strata benchmarks :)

I did quickly run a couple things on Strata but haven't gotten around yet to benchmark bigger models/customize them with Strata, but will do rather soon. So far Strata/Swift IQ2_XS performed really well compared to non-Strata/Qwen3.8 quantized variants.

> This is not about if a frontier AI provider is cheaper. It is about having control over your data and use of AI.

Yep, totally get it, and to be honest getting to run ablated models sometimes can also be useful.

> Also YMMV in “faster” — I have less than 5K into my home AI lab shenanigans and it’s pretty fast :)

My rig is... ~1.5k, maybe 3k if we count the CPU and GPU upgrade since 2019 :-D I really wanted to grab one of the latest mini-PCs (Halo, Spark, and other minor assemblers) for local setup, but to be honest I can't justify a 6k+ purchase for me and my wife alone. Perhaps in 3 years these mini-PCs will get to the ~2k ballpark (perhaps used), and although older by then, I might be able to run things 24/7 locally as well.

[–] bitexploder 2 days ago
With 32 GB more of RAM you can run ISTA GSQ RCO IQ3 XXS fast. You can make it work now but it is tight. You can stream experts from disk with builds now. You will get an okay token rate. Try it out if you have some disk space. It is a very good local model. I benched it at that quant. Sonnet 5 class at coding benchmarks.

Get a couple or V100S GPU. Figure out cooling. They will run it /fast/ with the right engine. :)

[–] origini 2 days ago
The easiest thing to do (takes 5 minutes) is to use LMStudio and then search for the model inside LMStudios UI.

It will show you on the model selection IF a model fits and if you use a "Qwen 3.8-35B-A3B" type of model, it should just work out of the box. A3B stands for Active which means you need a lot less fast ram.

You will run into issues fast though: If you have big tasks for it to do, your pc/mac will get warm very fast and noisy and you will cosume relevant more energy.

And as you mention: yeah small context!

Its still not that practical in my opinion.

[–] thenthenthen 2 days ago
I have been trying to setup LMstudio for hours and the model downloads always fail. Looks like my vpn is blocked somehow/somewhere :/
[–] ThrowawayTestr 1 day ago
Did you set your huggingface API key?
[–] origini 1 day ago
I do not remember ever having to do this.

Are you sure or is this new?

[–] Grombobulous 2 days ago
If you have enough system RAM (64GB), you can run Qwen 3.8 Flash Next with a GPU as small as 12GB, this repo is pretty amazing:

https://github.com/Niko1221/Strata/

My setup is a Ryzen 3600, 90GB DDR4 allocated to a VM (don’t even really need that much, just had it available, special thanks to the year 2024), and an RX 9060XT 16GB ($500 GPU).

I get around 40-60 tok/s depending on the quantization level I choose.

As you can see, the CPU is nothing special, don’t even need DDR5.

[–] drak0n1c 2 days ago
Yes it runs on all levels of hardware - with the latest Strata my 5090 and 64GB DDR5 gets 200-240 tok/sec decode, 6500 tok/sec prefill. Around $0.09/M tokens in power usage (have excess solar capacity).
[–] Grombobulous 2 days ago
Jealous, lol. But I did spend a grand total of $500 for my setup. The rest of the server was built purchased with the use case of running game servers.
[–] jmkni 2 days ago
AI harnesses like Claude will set it all up for you, you can just say "I want to run a localllm on this machine" and it will find the best one for your hardware and even help you fine tune it etc
[–] bitexploder 2 days ago
You will end up with a sub-par result. The space for small models is more specialized and specific and you should optimize to the specific task and or tasks you want to do. It will get some local model working, but there are a lot of interesting small models in the 4-10B space to look at and play with for your specific tasks. If you expect a full agentic coding agent it's just not going to happen without a larger model like Qwen 35B and ... that is not that great by today's standards, even Muse Glimmer is better.
[–] jonatron 2 days ago
After arguing and back and forth with Claude (not straight away), it found a kv streaming fork of llama https://github.com/achyudh/llama.cpp and an interesting ascii only model Qwen3.8-27B-ASCII-Condensed-UD-IQ4_XS.gguf . It's running, i'll see how it goes.
[–] brandall10 2 days ago
That's only part of the issue - prefill is horrible prior to M5 class chips.

So it depends on what you're doing. Using it for a fun oracle without feeding it too much context per turn? Sure, an older Max chip is great.

As a coding agent doing meaningful work on a sizable project? Compared to a cheap as chips cloud option, it will take an order of magnitude more time to complete.

[–] seanmcdirmid 2 days ago
Prefill isnt a huge problem with an MoE, but ya, dense models are a non starter before the M5. You are still better off using DeepSeek than a local MoE, but locally running something gives you possibilities if you are on an airplane without internet, or if you want to jump guard rails, or if you want to run a home device server, etc…
[–] labcomputer 2 days ago
SSD token caching (like oMLX does) goes a long way for prefill. Typical miss rates are under 5% in long coding sessions, which is mostly the output of a turn's tool use.
[–] bilbo0s 2 days ago
>The generation doesn't mater as much to me as the memory bandwidth

I don't know man?

The generation kind of does matter. I'm not gonna lie, matrix multiplication units speed things up considerably. That hardware confers a material change in capability.

Maybe from M5 up, it doesn't matter? But you're definitely going to notice the difference between M1 and M5 for instance.

[–] johng 2 days ago
Still on my M1 Max 64GB from release date. Love it. I don't do local AI but this laptop runs so cool and fast I have no reason to upgrade. They really knocked it out of the park on the design.

It feels just as fast as day 1 and I've never had any speed issues. Say what you want about Apple and their pricing and ecosystem but I've been using their hardware for over 20 years now and it's always been top notch.

If you buy their support/AppleCare, your support and warranty is excellent too. They don't skimp. I've seen them go so far past the extra mile it's unreal.

[–] dirtbag__dad 2 days ago
This is also my experience, but when I saw how few tokens/second with a large model it gets locally I was bummed. I’m wondering if I’ll be obligated to upgrade in the near future
[–] kilroy123 2 days ago
Interesting. I have the same machine w/ same specs. I find it sluggish. I think it depends on what you're doing.
[–] dawnerd 2 days ago
You might want to do a full restore or something, my M1 Max isn't sluggish at all.
[–] kilroy123 2 days ago
I recently upgraded to Golden Gate, and that helped a bit, but it still feels sluggish.
[–] alasano 2 days ago
What are you doing with yours? I recently started using Android/iOS emulators locally and combined with anything else my M1 Pro 32 GB feels unusable.

Definitely grabbing 128 GB + for the next machine.

[–] sudokatsu 1 day ago
How many emulators are you running at once? You can also change how much memory is dedicated to each Android device (if you’re using Android Studio at least); often times I can lower each Android emu by a couple GB from default and it’s fine.
[–] alasano 20 hours ago
Running 2 is enough to slow it down to a crawl unless I'm not doing anything else and just letting agents work.

I've definitely tried optimizing with lower memory as you suggest but the margin is so small given normal usage of the computer at the same time that it really doesn't make a difference unfortunately.

So that's 2 emulators + a few terminals of pi/Claude, Firefox open, vscode and usually docker but nothing too heavy there.

[–] Tostino 2 days ago
In this economy?!

I jest...but I'm disgusted by the price gouging going on. Glad my hardware is relatively recent and I had mostly maxed out already when I bought it a few years back. The same setup today would be closer to $7k with equivalent parts.

[–] origini 2 days ago
Puh i don't know, there might be plenty of new/better chips coming out for AI next year or in 2 years.

Isn't it also rumored that the M7 is reworked for AI?

And Xiaomi announced their AI Cube with 1.2t of bandwidth. Just because Nvidia is protecting its business by giving consumers either compute or bandwidth and Apple being something in between, doesn't mean we can't get both a lot better balanced.

[–] alasano 2 days ago
These M7 rumors and that they're skipping the M6 Pro/Max rumors are really making me try to stretch my M1 Pro until next year.

I'm gonna max out most of the specs on the next one I get, would feel insanely wasteful to do that now.

[–] vadansky 2 days ago
Yeah, the price is so high and things are moving so fast I don’t wanna risk committing to something that becomes obsolete in a year. I wanna see the rumoured M7 first. Hopefully hardware demand doesn’t make waiting a stupid decision…
[–] asdff 2 days ago
Waiting is never a stupid decision because you can always save a good deal on apple refurbished. I got a mac on bestbuy refurbished a couple years ago shortly after it was released. It had like 4 cycles on the battery and I saved hundreds.
[–] asdff 2 days ago
They've been saying the $LATEST_CHIP is better for AI since at least the M3.
[–] origini 1 day ago
But thats not the rumor I mentioned.

Yes the latest chip is better but the rumor is that the M7 has either more/better parts for LLM math OR that it has significiant changes to memory bandwidth too.

[–] asdff 2 days ago
It seems so wasteful to spend premium on the hardware for local ai to be shoved into macbook form though. You'd probably save a lot building a compute node you shove under your desk that you connect to with some more comfortable but cheap thin client, maybe a refurbished low spec macbook pro (inb4 I say air or neo and people say they cannot work on inferior screens).

Then again the people working on stuff involving this much local model compute demands probably make enough where they don't care about the couple grand they'd save building their own node. I guess apple will get the bag from being the nicest prebuilt out there in this case.

[–] wslh 2 days ago
> I'd rather have a M1 Max 64GB over a M5 Pro 64GB.

I am one of those: bought the M1 Max with 64gb thinking in running VMs, afterward bought a lighter Air with less memory and ended up using the M1 Max as a kind of luxury for LLMs and multicore computing.

[–] Hacker_Yogi 2 days ago
Running Gemma 4 26B A4B and Qwen 3.8 27B on a M4 Pro with 24 GB - Qwen 3.8 runs fine but is slow and taxes the machine a bit, Gemma 4 on the other hand, is a better experience.
[–] yuhao2dai 2 days ago
Apple killed M6 Pro, M6 Ultra and M6 Max to focus on AI chip, so yeah that'd be a more sensible option.
[–] al_borland 2 days ago
I guess this means I’ll be hanging onto my M1 Pro for another year and seeing what M7 has to offer.

This is the first time I’ve ever kept a computer this long and never really felt like it needed to be upgraded. I suppose this is a bit of a gift and a curse for Apple.

[–] iSnow 1 day ago
More on the curse side, tbh. Mostly because RAM and flash chips have exploded in price and fabs get now booked by NVIDIA et al where previously Apple was the biggest dog and could demand better conditions.

But well, they'll survive :) Their M-series was a stroke of luck considering AI.

[–] sapphire4 2 days ago
Srouji is killing it on whatever he has on mind or is asked to do. Everyone is riling up on GPU and Cloud AI costs. 99.99% of what people use AI for today already processes fine on an M1 from 5 years ago.
[–] cyclopeanutopia 2 days ago
I'm running qwen 3.8 flash next with strata (q3 quant) on laptop with 5090 and 128G RAM and OMP harness. At 90t/s speed it is pretty much good enough already.
[–] mywacaday 2 days ago
Will local AI eventually pull the proverbial rug out from under the big providers and the huge sums invested in building out data centers?
[–] 80fj0348i 2 days ago
Probably not. The ROI for local AI is pretty terrible at best it's like 20 years to see a cost advantage. Most enterprises are going to be fine using hosted models. The two main reasons to use local AI are 1. education and 2. if you cannot use hosted AI for your use case (safety guardrails, payment restrictions, etc.)
[–] mikae1 2 days ago
Considering the insane memory price surge it's going to take years (or an eternity) before most people will consider upspecing their machines to run local over paying $20 per month to have the honor to loan a slice of Altman's hardware.

The only hope we have is the AI bubble bursting, but that will undoubtedly come with its own set of macroeconomic surprises.

[–] colechristensen 2 days ago
The ~$1T/y AI capex isn't remotely sustainable. Memory fab capacity will go up, AI datacenter provisioning will go down, prices will become reasonable.
[–] 80fj0348i 2 days ago
> Memory fab capacity will go up

The fabs are terrified to overscale in case the market collapses before the builds are complete.

> AI datacenter provisioning will go down

Depends on political opposition at both local and national levels. Hard to predict the future, which feeds into the previous point.

[–] asdff 2 days ago
What is it with fabs where there is just no competition springing up outside the existing memory cartels? Is the knowledge of how to build and run a fab strictly controlled by these companies? Is all qualified talent just immediately poached and put behind NDA and noncompetes? It just makes no sense. Capitalism would suggest these conditions with so much unstable equilibrium in this market would see increase in supply to take advantage of the pricing. The fact that this isn't playing out as such suggests there are some very powerful thumbs on the scale of this "free" market.
[–] colechristensen 2 days ago
It takes about a decade to bring one up and during EVERY wave of a booming memory demand supply crunch there has been a subsequent round of major bankruptcies from suppliers who decided to scale and had no demand when they finally got online.

Supply is not elastic and responds very much slower than demand. There's no conspiracy or corruption needed for this result.

[–] kbolino 2 days ago
The conspiracy is real, it's even been proven in court, but as things stand, it's also necessary because of the factors you describe. Investors will not touch the DRAM market with a 10-foot pole, so it has had to rely on self-funding. While there have been state subsidies too, price fixing has proven to be the most effective way to survive the extreme volatility and fund the massive capex necessary for each generational leap. They have gotten a bit more sophisticated about it since the court case 20 years ago, but as far as I can tell, it's basically the same as it's ever been. The lack of effective competition is a function of the market itself, not any tilted scales. If anything, tilting the scales on purpose with greater state involvement is the only way to change the dynamics, but few states have the capacity and competence to carry that out effectively.
[–] dzhiurgis 2 days ago
> Investors will not touch the DRAM market with a 10-foot pole

Have you not seen Micron or Sandisk stock?

[–] ActorNightly 2 days ago
Man you Apple Fans really live under a rock.

Mini PC with Occulink, EGPU dock, 750w power supply and a refurbished 3090 is 2500. It can run Gemma4:31b at 1000+ tok/sec prefill, ~40 tok/sec generation (which is slow, but a fully connected model is way better for all tasks)

if you want more specialized partial activation models like Qwen, you can get 100+ tok/sec generation.

This beats anything that Apple has by a long shot. You don't need to run large models for usefulness. Large models can get things write the first time, but thats their only advantage. Running small models that are good enough like gemma4:31b fast allows you to do faster iterations.

And if you really want, you can also do multi GPU setups if you want slightly slower model loading with usb4/thunderbolt ports.

TLDR; local ai has already been useful for quite some time if you arent brainwashed into believing that Macs are the best for running local inference.

[–] Xeoncross 2 days ago
> "Man you Apple Fans really live under a rock... ...refurbished 3090 is 2500"

Before you make assumptions, there are valid reasons for the choice I made:

I paid $1k for a refurbished M1 Max 64GB macbook that can run Qwen 3.8 27B at 24tok/sec (looks like they are about $1.5k on ebay). In my case, Apple was a lot cheaper (used) if you're looking at price-per-token. Yes, it's almost twice as slow as a 3090, but it's also half the price /performance ratio.

Qwen 3.8 27B Q4 with 64k:

3090: ~40tok/sec

M1 Max : ~24tok/sec (MLX)

In fact, the Max can even do 265k context which isn't possible with a single 3090 last I checked (without dropping to Q3-Q2)

[–] ActorNightly 2 days ago
>Qwen 3.8 27B Q4 with 64k, 3090: ~40tok/sec

Try more like 70-130 tok/sec. https://github.com/L-Forster/open-jet/tree/master/megakernel.

And also Qwen models famously chase benchmarks. They are good for writing code, but fall behind in other areas. Gemma4:31B is 6gb larger and does a much better job across all areas. https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/comments/1vyzopv/gemma4_...

Go ahead and run Gemma4 on your M1, and you will find that its unusable at 12 tok/sec.

And this is also not touching prefill, which is the biggest thing that you need fast, and Apple sucks in this regard compared to nvidia cards. With gfx cards, you can throw big codebases at the local models and it will happily crunch through them in very little time.

Sure, spending 1.5k on a Macbook enables you to run a local model, and if you really have a good reason for running local (like running heretic/abliterated models) for tasks you don't mind waiting for, it works. The difference is, spend 1k more and let you never have to pay for tokens, and you can run inference all day long without your computer thermal throttling, like your Macbook.

And I don't need to make assumptions when you say idiotic stuff like "We're getting close to local AI being really useful", like you have any idea what you are talking about. On par with being an Apple fan though.

[–] labcomputer 2 days ago
A $2500 Mac Studio with M5 Max running Qwen3.8-27b or Gemma4:31b in oMLX gets about the same speeds you quoted... and it comes with a warranty and has enough memory not to choke at longer context lengths.
[–] ActorNightly 1 day ago
Qwen3.8-27b can be ran at 100 tok/sec average https://github.com/L-Forster/open-jet/tree/master/megakernel.

Gemma4:31b, which is the better model with more complex architecture (and thus can't be compiled into a megakernel), is gonna be way slower in prefill, and ~50% slower than a 3090 even with oMLX. You can't get away from much slower shared ram vs vram, and less parallelism compared to 3090.

The other advantage of an eGPU setup, you can simply add/swap performance. Dual 4070s give you 24b of ram and you can still get about 80% of the performance of a single 3090, and actually you get faster prefill due to more parallelism.

So in terms of money/usefulness, Mac always loses.

[–] abujazar 2 days ago
Most people don't run their own LLMs, let alone install GPUs themselves.

I'm one of those Mac users, but I do have a linux tower for remote dev work and LLMs.

[–] apples_oranges 2 days ago
..really useful on a Mac. FTFY