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points by nicois 18 hours ago | 0 comments
In Australia, the real value of these big batteries is not necessarily to provide emergency power, but more to respond in milliseconds to variations in demand and to smooth out the 5 minute spot market.

Having a sink and a source for spikes aids grid stability and somewhat helps to reduce the need to build more infrastructure to handle transmitting power from the generators during those peaks.

It also helps avoid the viability of gas powered generators which are very expensive and carbon intensive.

[–] DanielHB 15 hours ago
When I worked with medium-sized scale batteries one of the most surprising use-cases was to use them _together_ with diesel generators. Diesel generators are incredibly wasteful because they don't vary the power output / fuel-consumption very well based on demand.

When you couple a large battery with a diesel generator the generator turns off when the battery is full so the generator always run at optimal efficiency.

[–] cortesoft 15 hours ago
I feel like this is one of those things that isn’t surprising to Factorio players
[–] DanielHB 14 hours ago
Factorio power generators always run at 100% efficiency, so it is not really the same thing, you still consume the same amount of coal if you have batteries or not.

I guess it applies for nuclear power if you do that jank thing to not put fuel cells unless you need power. But then it is a thermal battery...

[–] nostrademons 10 hours ago
I don't think that's true for steam engines - they produce only what is demanded and scale their steam (and hence fuel) consumption accordingly. This is what makes steam an effective backup & load smoothing source, you can load up a bunch of coal in the boilers for when your laser turrets start going, but it won't get consumed as long as your nuclear/solar power is running. One of my strategies when I run out of coal is to cut the power to everything but the coal mining patch (by deleting power poles), and then let it mine enough to fill up the boiler belt.

It's nuclear that continues to burn regardless of demand. The extra energy will heat your heat pipes up to 1000C but any heat beyond that is wasted.

Also, if you play Space Age you're well accustomed to using batteries (accumulators) to smooth out power spikes. Fulgora power generation through lightning rods is incredibly bursty, and if you don't drop about 20-30 accumulators per lightning rod you will waste power and not make it through the day.

[–] fendy3002 13 hours ago
Or S-R latched heat tower with accumulator, though it's more of a hassle than it's worth.
[–] frrlpp 7 hours ago
100% efficiency is impossible.
[–] switchbak 12 hours ago
We did this many years ago for remote First Nations sites with an energy monitoring startup I worked for - saving them enormous sums of money (and carbon!) in the process. It's actually quite amazing how low some of the low hanging fruit is once you start looking.
[–] pixl97 15 hours ago
Yep, this is the fully hybrid electric path. Generators work much more efficiently when ran at a fixed RPM.
[–] _heimdall 15 hours ago
Unless its a Chevy Volt. That was a really interesting car in many ways, but they kneecapped fuel efficiency by eating transformer losses twice instead of licensing Toyota patents.
[–] itsamario 14 hours ago
Not just fixed but most engineers design with UL standards so while they advertise maximum output they're all most efficient somewhere around 80% their maximum.

The batteries help the grid because they can maintain a minimum demand the power plants need and compensate for any excess demand that would tax the grid infrastructure.

I've never tested a generator, are they all producing pure sine waves?

[–] Mawr 12 hours ago
That's literally how hybrid cars work, yeah.
[–] _heimdall 15 hours ago
The biggest challenge is keeping the energy almost perfectly in phase. US power runs at 60Hz and most grid equipment fails quickly if that changes even a little bit.

If I'm not mistaken, that was what hit Spain when much of their grid went down for hours. The analysis I heard was that they were running entirely on renewables and it fell out of phase causing large scale safety shutdowns.

[–] ttul 15 hours ago
Fortunately, interconnects cannot go out of phase easily. If one region is out of phase with another, massive currents flow down the transmission lines within milliseconds, causing generators at one side or the other to slow down or speed up. I have seen this effect live at a hydroelectric dam. We were watching the turbine shaft spin at the moment they switched on some giant interconnect. There was a phase-alignment dial and it just instantly pinged up to 0 while the spinning shaft shuddered, slightly altering its rate of rotation in the blink of an eye.
[–] _heimdall 10 hours ago
Is that same functionality available in solar or wind type scenarios?

When I heard the Spain issue being described by a grid engineer, they were focusing on the lack of rotational mass in those systems compared to the large turbines used in other generator designs as the reason solar could go out of phase more easily. What you're describing sounds like that scenario, hydro has large enough rotational mass to keep things stable.

[–] qlte 14 hours ago
That's the usual failure mode of any grid, aggressive load shedding will be used as a last resort to keep the frequency within tolerances.

The renewable aspect is because historically they were installed with "grid following" inverter systems instead of "grid forming" which can maintain frequency even if temporarily islanded in a partition without spinning mass generators to set frequency.

There's nothing intractable about a 100% renewable grid, the technology exists and has already been deployed in new installations.

[–] _heimdall 10 hours ago
Oh yeah for sure, I had assumed it was likely a transitionary issue with new systems not functioning well with older systems and different assumptions.
[–] ViewTrick1002 9 hours ago
No this is misinformation that continues to be spread.

The Iberian blackout was caused by a lack of reactive power leading to voltages going out of their designed ranges.

The Iberian grid had adequate inertia at the time.

Reasonable grids have forced inverter based generation to manage reactive power for over a decade. But Spain due to lackluster processes relied on thermal plants to provide it. And they didn’t provide the expected amount.

There were some more confounders around oscillations and what not but the central cause came down to voltage control. Which is near trivial to solve in 2026. If you just force everyone to do it.

[–] _heimdall 5 hours ago
I'll look into this further. I heard about this from a podcast episode on The Great Simplification, I'd be very surprised if it turned out to be misinformation though its always possible. Nate is pretty damn thorough in his research and sits squarely on the left half of the political spectrum, I'd usually expect misinformation like this to come from the (US) right.
[–] ViewTrick1002 18 hours ago
That is ancillary services. And where all battery implementations started before saturating those marketss.

We've now past that and batteries are actively killing the business case for fossil gas peakers while renewables are doing the same for legacy thermal producers.

[–] bluefirebrand 16 hours ago
I worked at a company for a while trying to make a battery control device that predicts the peak daily demand and discharges the battery to offset it.

It's kind of crazy how much money you can save by shrinking your peak demand during the time of day it's most expensive.

[–] LeFantome 15 hours ago
Where I live, hydro is the dominant power producer.

My electricity costs 40% less from 11 pm to 7 am and 30% more from 4 pm to 9 pm.

A hydro dam can also be thought of as a battery. When you are not using it, the dam fills up (charges).

My utility buys inexpensive excess power from the NA grid when electricity is cheap and drains the dams when third-party electricity is expensive. Adding other renewables to the mix plays a similar role. The pricing incentives shrink peak demand as you suggest.

One of the reasons residential solar is a tough sell for me is that electricity is relatively inexpensive and likely to stay that way.

[–] _heimdall 15 hours ago
There are interesting large scale projects that use hydro directly as power storage for renewables.

When the sun is out or wind is blowing, use excess energy to pump water up hill. When you're low on energy supply, open up the dam to run the water back down hill and through a hydro plant.

I've toyed with the idea of doing the same thing at a small scale on our farm but would need to build a second decent sized pond up hill of our main one.

[–] PaulDavisThe1st 13 hours ago
I've read that globally almost all the places that can do pumped hydro "storage" already exist. I don't know if that's true, but if it is, then while this is a really cool technology, we won't be getting much further with it.
[–] vivaldi_bt 11 hours ago
AFAIK, it is not really true. But you need several things to do a pumped storage: a big source of water (and it better to not be a salt one), a place where a reservoir can be made and an elevation difference between them. So I'd assume that the most of the places that can be easily used to make a pumped storage already have one.
[–] PaulDavisThe1st 8 hours ago
Isn't that more or less precisely what I said?
[–] very-old-sw 12 hours ago
It's possible in the Catskills in New York State (USA) but a proposed project there was killed by the greens. Who also killed fracking in NYS and a power line from Quebec to Mass and closed a nuclear plant and ....
[–] _heimdall 5 hours ago
Local concerns in my area killed a project as well, though I can say I agreed with their concerns. The power company wanted to cut the top off of a mountain to build the reservoir and were likely going to force a small community to relocate entirely. Not the best solution IMO.
[–] Smoosh 9 hours ago
Interesting that “the greens” have so much power in a country which is very strongly two-party in its politics. Or did you mean “environmentalists”?
[–] mixdup 11 hours ago
you would be way way better off just buying some actual batteries
[–] _heimdall 5 hours ago
That's where I ended up, we have a combination of repurposed batteries from wrecked cars and, soon at least, new batteries with CATL cells. I would prefer the hydro project bit digging a pond is a surprisingly expensive project today.
[–] toomuchtodo 15 hours ago
Have you priced residential batteries and time of use to charge at night? That's Base Power's value prop, they partner with ComEd, install batteries at your home and become your power provider charging a lower rate than ComEd. Batteries charge at night when nuclear generators are still humming and demand is low, and then serve daytime load.

Solar may not pencil out, but energy arb over system lifetime might, especially if you have any battery subsidies available. Just keep in mind flexibility to add solar in the future so its as trivial as installing racking and panels and running power to the storage and load center (optimize for optionality).

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/07/28/base-power-battery...

[–] very-old-sw 12 hours ago
I get service from San Diego Gas & Electric, have solar and powerwalls, and am part of Community Power's VPP. I am prohibited from charging my powerwall from the grid.
[–] toomuchtodo 11 hours ago
Is this a utility requirement? My understanding is this was due to previous IRS guidance about battery tax subsidies that potentially no longer applies, although I wouldn't be surprised if this is a utility requirement to be on a time of use plan to prevent you from maxing savings by having solar and charging from utility mains at night.

https://diysolarforum.com/threads/new-irs-requirements-for-b...

> The private [IRS] letter ruling was from 2016, prior to the explicit credit for batteries.

From 2023:

> “Batteries and the federal tax credit at a glance: Residential batteries installed in 2023 can qualify for the 30% federal tax credit, even if they aren’t attached to solar panels. The value of the tax credit will vary depending on the equipment installed and labor costs. The battery must be installed at the taxpayer’s residence and be owned by the taxpayer to receive the tax credit.”

(the setting is controlled by Tesla and I have heard some folks, anecdotally, having it removed with a support ticket, ymmv)

[–] sandworm101 17 hours ago
I am still a fan of centrifugal systems. The lifecycle costs of a spinning mass seem more manageable than the complexities of chemical batteries. The mass of a block of concrete and steal isn't going to degrade over time. And bearings/motors are such mature tech that they can last decades, even a century without replacement.
[–] nixon_why69 17 hours ago
If you're going mechanical, why not pumped water storage instead? Nothing has to spin super fast and hydro has a lot of maturity.

(From a guy who got burned buying stock in a centrifugal system as my first "wicked smaht" investment as a 22yo).

[–] stefs 16 hours ago
there are areas where almost all options for pumped hydro are already developed and there's little room for expansion. additionally, the heat waves from the climate catastrophe affects pumped hydro negatively (evaporation and higher water temperature).
[–] tpm 15 hours ago
Evaporation can be solved by covering the reservoirs, so the water can't evaporate. Geography is the real issue. Costs to build possibly too.
[–] grumbelbart2 17 hours ago
Mostly because we already used all suitable places. It also has a huge environmental impact, large upfront costs that you can only spend in bulk, permissions, lawsuits, protests from the local population and so forth.
[–] sandworm101 17 hours ago
Hydro is limited by geography. It cannot scale in the same way. Rather than giant spinning masses at central locations, current thinking is more about smaller masses scattered throughout a grid. There are even a few studies on whether existing air conditioner/heat pump compressors could contribute.
[–] mixdup 11 hours ago
I think geographic dispersion of batteries is going to be a big plus. If the "battery" is a giant lake or a big plant with a spinning mass, the power has to be transmitted from that facility to the end user over the grid

Putting a ton of smaller chemical batteries at distribution substations means when the grid is at the peak, you can cover that peak without transmitting that power over the transmission system. Putting the battery near the consumer will take a big load off of the transmission system which as much of a bottleneck as the lack of generating facilities

[–] rexskimmer 12 hours ago
> And bearings/motors are such mature tech that they can last decades, even a century without replacement.

This is not true at all for bearings in large industrial systems under constant load. As the mass scales up, the systems become exponentially more sensitive to vibrations from wear of the mechanical parts. Even magnetic bearings max out at about 20 years.

Flywheel systems are more complicated and expensive than simple chemical batteries. Cost also scales much more than batteries as you increase the energy storage. They are also less efficient over time due to friction even with magnetic bearings.

[–] rgarrett88 17 hours ago
Maintenance on high energy movement hasn't exactly had a great track record either.
[–] detourdog 14 hours ago
There was a giant flywheel company near me about 20 years ago. Maybe it's still there. They had one incident where a flywheel broke.

https://beaconpower.com/stephentown-new-york/

[–] angry_octet 17 hours ago
There's a very long waiting list for new synchronous condensers, almost 5 years from order to delivery.
[–] toomuchtodo 17 hours ago
Batteries can serve the same function, while also providing energy arb and additional grid services, so I'm somewhat curious how log the market for syncons continues to exist.
[–] sandworm101 16 hours ago
Batteries (and their associated HV switching gear) are slow to react and have very limited lifespans, on the order of a few years. That's why your washing machine uses a capacitor to start its motor rather than a battery. Even capacitors are not as reactive as an already spinning mass.
[–] sanderjd 16 hours ago
How are you defining "slow" in this comment?

My understanding is that batteries are demonstrating longer useful lifetimes than was anticipated.

Ultimately I think diversity in technologies is the best policy, but difficult to set up the incentives to achieve it.

[–] toomuchtodo 16 hours ago
Both assertions are false. Batteries react within milliseconds [1], and last 10-20 years (depending on chemistry and cycling, lithium at the shorter end, sodium and flow at the longer end) [2] [3] [4]. Australia had to reconfigure its ancillary services market due to how fast battery storage reacts, for example (proven out with the Hornsdale Power Reserve).

Please update priors to current state of the art.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50176

- The most common cited use case for batteries is frequency response. Frequency response is a service that maintains grid frequency as close to 60 hertz (Hz) as reasonably possible. Deviations below 60 Hz can lead to protective generator trips that result in a subsequent decline in system stability. Batteries are particularly well suited for frequency regulation because their output does not require any startup time and batteries can quickly absorb surges. At the end of 2020, 885 MW of battery storage capacity (59% of total utility-scale battery capacity) cited frequency response as a use case.

[2] Smith, J. et al. "Lithium - ion battery degradation mechanisms and mitigation strategies for utility - scale energy storage". Journal of Energy Storage, 2020.

[3] Brown, A. "Lead - acid battery performance and lifespan in utility - scale applications". Power Systems Research, 2018.

[4] Green, C. et al. "Flow batteries for long - term utility - scale energy storage: A review". Energy and Environmental Science, 2019.

[–] adrianN 15 hours ago
Siemens is making a lot of money selling inertial stabilizers. There is ongoing research on how to stabilize grids in the face of decreasing inertial frequency stabilization.
[–] toomuchtodo 14 hours ago
Do you have any resources you can share on how this compares to synthetic inertia battery storage and renewables inverters can provide? I am interested!
[–] jabart 13 hours ago
If the washing machine is using an induction moter, the capacitor is for creating the conditions for it to self-start on a single phase system. Three-phase induction motors don't need this.
[–] BenjiWiebe 3 hours ago
And in fact, a lot of washing machines these days use a 3 phase motor. BLDC and a controller.
[–] _blk 17 hours ago
Yup. Esp. when space is available. But thet benefit heavily from low pressure environments though so it's not just an arm and a mass in a fence.
[–] dev_l1x_be 17 hours ago
Producing batteries are not expensive and carbon intensive?
[–] horsawlarway 17 hours ago
Genuine question - what is the thought process behind this comment?

Because we both know that gas generators also require a production step... arguably one that's quite a bit more complex than a battery, at ~$1,000,000/MW of installation costs. And that installation of that complex is going to be very carbon intensive (even the concrete foundation alone...).

And then on top the plant actively burns hydrocarbons for the entirety of its existence.

So fill me in here - what is the exact argument you are trying to make with this?

[–] bijowo1676 16 hours ago
their only argument is dont do anything, dont build anything, dont change anything, the Earth is too populated, so we need degrowth degrowth degrowth at all costs and fall of living standards across the board, so that we can achieve true Net Zero Carbon life.

thats the only argument these people make

[–] scottLobster 15 hours ago
And while they claim to be peaceful, the underlying argument is that human life is the problem to be solved, and if you believe in increasing living standards or having children you're the enemy.

Hard to see how that stops at halting powerplant construction. Theses people would accidentally cause a famine with their agricultural policies and look upon the starving children as "progress", even if they're socialized enough to never say it out loud. Scary shit.

[–] switchbak 11 hours ago
Truly dark.

The issue is there are SO MANY people who stop at the conclusion "batteries are expensive, dirty, use rare materials and are fueled by slave labour" - this level of understanding is ubiquitous in my experience. What I never hear is "compared to what" - like how does the full lifecycle analysis of those batteries IN CONTEXT compare to the status quo?

Or the folks that extend that argument to "EVs are bad". Without even considering the energy mix that they rely on. If you're not even interested in doing a single ounce of research and thinking, you're not making a point - you're regurgitating corporate propaganda.

[–] Smoosh 9 hours ago
I have to suspect that there are so many because there has been a propaganda campaign against progress, I suspect as a branch of the fossil fuel PR to say that climate change is not real, what we are doing now is fine and we shouldn’t change anything.
[–] ethagnawl 13 hours ago
> having children you're the enemy.

With these people, this greatly depends on _who_ is having the children.

[–] JMKH42 16 hours ago
People who make these comments are either disingenuous people, or people who aren't thinking carefully repeating the arguments of their tribe.
[–] WarmWash 17 hours ago
The good 'ole "Lets start with the premise that all energy in our calculation comes from coal transported by truck, and then work out how "green" these technologies are"
[–] adrianN 17 hours ago
Over the lifetime of the battery it’s not that bad and gets better as the carbon intensity of the grid that runs the factories improves.
[–] stefs 17 hours ago
that's a one time cost over many years that's quickly amortized. lets assume an upfront cost of ~100kg CO2 per kWh of battery storage and 250g of CO2 per kWh generated by a gas turbine. this means the carbon ROI is there after 400 kWh.
[–] dralley 17 hours ago
Compared to gas generators? Probably. And unlike gas there's no ongoing cost.
[–] pixl97 15 hours ago
That type of person never thinks about the crazy amount of energy it takes to get fuel out of the ground. I guess they think gas falls out of the sky like rain and the only cost is in collecting it.
[–] dralley 14 hours ago
Or the amount of energy required to produce a large gas turbine. Which, between the refining and advanced metallurgy and the casting and machining of such a large piece of metal, is a lot.
[–] sanderjd 16 hours ago
Not particularly, relative to producing anything, including turbines and the fuel to run them. (And then you have to burn that fuel...)
[–] thatfrenchguy 15 hours ago
you have to look at CO2/kwh produced over the lifetime, that's the useful metric here
[–] speed_spread 17 hours ago
The extraction cost of minerals is only paid once. And a few big batteries will be much easier to recycle than a billion small ones in consumer electronics.
[–] throwaway473825 18 hours ago
I don't think it's a coincidence that China has developed batteries that neuter the advantage that gas had over coal, but I can't stop wondering if we'd already have solved long-term storage if China hated coal as much as oil and gas.
[–] carefree-bob 17 hours ago
China does not hate oil and gas.

To put things into perspective, China gets half its energy from coal, and about 10% from natgas (increasing to 15% by 2030) and about 20% from oil. China is rapidly increasing natgas use, primarily by building out new pipelines to get more natgas from Russia.

China is also increasing oil consumption as well as exploration, particularly starting with the 14th 5 year plan as well as a special seven year action plan to increase oil production, doing deep water drilling, unconventional (e.g. fracking) drilling as well as a massive shale oil boom. Over the course of that 5 year plan, China discovered more than 225 oil fields and oil production increased from 3.8 million barrels per day to 4.6 mbpd as a result of a ~500 billion CNY investment to increase production. Still China imports about 10 mbpd, so it has developed a massive 1.5 billion barrel strategic reserve, which allows China to weather disruptions in global oil supply even as it races to increase domestic production.

And China is also investing in battery capacity, with installed capacity now at 140 GW or 5% of their energy usage.

The statement that somehow "batteries neuter the advantage that gas has over coal" is not something I understand. Both coal and natgas are reliable forms of energy and are unaffected by battery capacity; you need batteries for unreliable energy such as wind or solar so that you can turn the variable output into something stable that a grid can consume.

[–] tialaramex 17 hours ago
> The statement that somehow "batteries neuter the advantage that gas has over coal" is not something I understand.

In thermal electricity plants it takes a lot longer to go from cold & dark to generating electricity with coal than with either Combined-Cycle gas or especially the Open-Cycle "peaker" gas plants. Both types of gas plant also AIUI have a lot better ability to "throttle" their power output.

This means if you have a bunch of CCGT like Britain, you can use those directly to "top-up" the power from your fleet of solar PV and wind turbines, whether that's 1GW of top-up or 20GW of top-up. The change from weather (sun goes down, wind picks up, clouds appear, etc.) is relatively slow compared to what a gas plant can do, whereas it's too fast for coal to keep up as I understand it.

[–] lazide 17 hours ago
Coal by it’s nature is much less amenable (from a physics/chemistry) perspective to automation and high resolution control. Less pure/refined, granular instead of a gas, harder to start and burns longer once started, etc.

Contaminants in the coal (due to it being a solid mineral) also means it burns with a lot often toxic ash that is hard to deal with.

On the plus side, you can often literally use an excavator to dig it up and put it in the back of a train and then burn it with minimal other capital equipment.

It all makes sense.

[–] pixl97 15 hours ago
>literally use an excavator to

That might be understating the issue. The excavators we use to dig coal have been, and are monstrous. Thousand ton beasts requiring a fleet of support vehicles around them and the ever increasing depth of overburden.

Also the fly ash leftovers tend to get piled up and occasionally break lose in human and ecological disasters at massive scales.

[–] tialaramex 15 hours ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagger_288

This is the same kind of scale as those fictional "Spice Harvesters" in Dune. Look around for a photo where there's a person or a familiar object you know the size of in the same frame as the Bagger 288

[–] lazide 12 hours ago
That is due to the inevitable scaling that occurs with volume, it is not necessary in any sort of physics sense.

You can try it yourself - you can literally harvest/mine coal with a shovel yourself in many areas, and burn it in a fireplace if you don’t mind how dirty it is.

[–] jmyeet 17 hours ago
Here's a detailed breakdown of China's energy picture since 2020 [1]. The big story is that fossil fuels are relatively stable or in decline and solar is exploding. Hydro is down because of drought and they're building an even bigger dam than the Three Gorges Dam (ie Medog) but it'll be ~7 years before it comes online.

There has been an uptick in coal this year to replace oil imports, which have fallen off a cliff because of the Iran war [2]. The real story of 2026 is how China essentially saved the world economy by doing this [3].

China is dependent on oil and gas imports but clearly sees the writing on the wall. All of these projects are an effort to wean themselves off of oil. So is a lot of domestic policy like the electrification of vehicles. This has had a global impact, reducing global oil demand by almost 2% in the last 5 years [4].

I agree with you on your point that I don't see the connection between batteries and gas vs coal either. If anything, batteries are to stabilize energy demands when the Sun is down.

[1]: https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-tre...

[2]: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/crude-oil-imports

[3]: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/china-crude-oil-iran-hormuz-...

[4]: https://www.intellinews.com/china-led-ev-boom-cuts-global-oi...

[–] tialaramex 16 hours ago
> I agree with you on your point that I don't see the connection between batteries and gas vs coal either. If anything, batteries are to stabilize energy demands when the Sun is down.

Because spinning a coal plant up or down is slower, the batteries let you make the gradient more gentle.

Suppose Alice's gas plant can go from 100MW output to zero in ten minutes. So if Sam's solar farm goes from zero to 100MW over ten minutes in early morning Alice's plant can mirror, between them Alice and Sam produce 100MW of power smoothly. Obviously real life is more complicated but this gets the point across

Now, Charlie owns a coal power plant, it can ramp from 100MW to zero, but it takes about an hour. This doesn't directly mirror the solar farm, Charlie and Sam can't really just work together to smoothly produce the same power

Bill's 100MWh BESS fixes this. An hour before the sun comes up, Charlie's coal plant begins shutting down, Bill's BESS puts out 100MW while consuming the gradually reducing coal power output and some of the gradually increasing additional power from the solar farm as that increases.

[–] carefree-bob 15 hours ago
> The big story is that fossil fuels are relatively stable or in decline and solar is exploding.

This is true only in the sense that fossil fuels, as a percentage of total energy consumption, are stable or in slight decline. That is because total energy consumption is rapidly increasing, specifically as new forms of energy are added to the mix.

Fossil fuels in absolute terms are, however, increasing.

China is burning more coal today than ever before. Coal use is going up. Coal use as a percentage of total energy is going down.

China is burning more oil and natgas than ever before. It is increasing. But as a percentage of total energy, it is decreasing.

This also matches China's CO2 targets. China's plan is not to decrease CO2 emissions, those emissions will keep increasing. The targets are to decrease the emissions required to generate a dollar of GDP. By 2060, they want the ratio of emissions to GDP to be 60% lower than it was in 2020. If you look at historical trendlines, that is an easy target to meet, just with improvements in technology and energy efficiency, particularly when you are starting from such a high base. But people look at that goal and think that China wants to cut emissions by 60%. GDP in 2060 will be 10x what the GDP was in 2020, so a 60% cut in that ratio is still a 400% increase in total emissions. Everything is measured in terms of ratios, not absolute numbers. Ratios where the base is always rapidly growing.

This confuses a lot of people who see that the ratio of fossil fuel in the entire energy mix is decreasing, and think this means that actual fossil fuel use is decreasing. The charts, report, graphs that people cite, if you look carefully, are always ratios. Ratios with the denominator growing as the denominator is something tied to GDP, whether total output or total energy output.

It's more accurate to say that there are limits to how much additional fossil fuel capacity China can bring online, as these are mature industries, whereas nuclear, solar, etc, are young industries and there is a lot of capacity to bring online since you are starting from a low base. China's approach to energy is always "we want more of it, of any kind." The only reason that China's oil production is not increasing by 10% per year is because it's not possible for China to increase oil production that quickly. Same for coal. China is increasing all forms of energy as fast as possible.

[–] tialaramex 14 hours ago
> China is burning more coal today than ever before. Coal use is going up.

In terms of electricity production, that does not seem to be the case

https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent...

It's possible that China's metallurgical coal burning increased so much that it offsets power generation decline, but I wouldn't expect so.

> China is increasing all forms of energy as fast as possible.

This does not match the observed reality.

[–] rini17 14 hours ago
> This does not match the observed reality.

Observed by whom? For example this shows no change in overall trend.

https://www.iea.org/countries/china/emissions

[–] tialaramex 13 hours ago
Two problems. First, you were talking about China growing all forms of energy, but this chart isn't somehow depicting that, instead it's about CO2 emissions, but more importantly Second that's a chart ending in 2024. The chart I linked shows a dip for Coal in 2025 and further reducing year-on-year through to September 2026.
[–] carefree-bob 9 hours ago
Your link shows a wavy curve of coal use that has an upward trend. I think your graph does prove my point.

Here is longer term data also: https://www.worldometers.info/coal/china-coal/#history

China is using more coal than ever before. But it's not monotone up, there is such a thing as a business cycle as well as global commodity price swings that add noise. Certainly when there is a contraction in manufacturing or high coal prices, firms will substitute away to other goods, or similarly when we have the oil shortages now, you can bet that coal use is increasing to compensate.

But despite all that there is a marked upward trend.

> This does not match the observed reality.

It matches the observed reality, yes. China spent half a billion Yuan to increase oil production, which it did. China increased coal production. China increased nuclear production. China increased wind and solar.

Name one form of energy that China is not increasing?

[–] tialaramex 6 hours ago
Your assertion was "China is burning more coal today than ever before"

But it turns out by "today" you meant not literally today, or this month, or even as perhaps we might anticipate this year, but decade or so.

Decades is completely the wrong scale in this conversation. You won't be able to see anything until it's too late to matter.

[–] maxglute 7 hours ago
>Name one form of energy that China is not increasing?

Literally coal considering latest data, i.e. not historic data that caps at 2024. 2025 potential tipping point, total coal generation TWh down in absolute terms, during record export year. 2026 on trend for another ~1% YoY decline. Peaking coal for energy generation part of 2026-2030 15th 5Y plan, we're in the _planned_ plateau phase, and decline after. Of course planned / projected, but we're edging to 2 consecutive years of declining absolute coal generation. Full trend is line goes up suddenly stops. Now to be completely fair, there was 2 years of coal decline 10 years ago when PRC was fighting war on pollution and stalled a bunch of factories and shuttered coal plants i.e. total electric generation stalled. Current structure shift from construction (less steel / less concrete), but total electric generation also growing.

That's just for power generation, you're right coal use set to increase for petchem, i.e. replace oil for industrial inputs since coal feedstock cheaper than oil at current prices. But in terms of energy, coal is not increasing despite new coal infra is increasing to more efficiently use coal for peaking instead of baseload. You're also right PRC doesn't "hate" coal, I mean it would probably love to have ample cheap oil/ng, but unlimited coal is good consolation / contingency at least until renewable share becomes dominant. PRC loves domestic coal for energy security, but not enough to burn it forever especially when the economics don't make sense, but enough to have insurance infra to burn in ample amounts just in case.

[–] jefurii 17 hours ago
Username doesn't quite fit here
[–] oblio 18 hours ago
China can't hate coal (yet). In case of an armed conflict with the West, they will be cut off completely from oil and gas. Renewables don't cover all their energy needs. So they are building a lot of coal plants as backup.
[–] bryanlarsen 17 hours ago
> cut off completely from oil and gas

China is the world's 4th largest oil & gas producer. They're dependent on imports because they're the 2nd largest importer. However, they are simultaneously increasing production and decreasing consumption. Those two lines will cross some day. It might be a dangerous day for the rest of the world when China stops becoming dependent on imported oil.

[–] tuesdaynight 17 hours ago
> It might be a dangerous day for the rest of the world when China stops becoming dependent on imported oil.

Why? Would China just try to start a global war? If it's about Taiwan, I'm not sure that USA would care like 5 years ago. USA will probably do the same with South America

[–] toomuchtodo 17 hours ago
China built strategic petroleum reserves that can operate for over a year so that if the US attempted to blockade oil supplies from the middle east during a conflict, China could press on when they decide to obtain Taiwan (or so the geopolitical strategy thesis goes). Does it make sense to take Taiwan once China has their own semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and Taiwan is mostly a retirement home [1]? Hard to say. Old people in power take illogical and unconventional actions out of nostalgia, historically speaking.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50260274

[–] toomuchtodo 17 hours ago
China coal use has dropped below 50% [1], and they currently curtail renewable generation roughly total annual generation of Spain and the Philippines combined every six months [2] (~401 terawatt-hours of power). They are rapidly deploying battery storage to accelerate electrification and making use of energy that would otherwise be curtailed, which should continue to drive down coal use (their electricity markets are currently reconfiguring to use market signals and incentives to encourage this outcome).

They will, in the next five years (at current renewables and battery storage deployment rates [60% of their energy currently comes from renewables, and this increases 10% YoY]), become a low carbon (hard to say net zero yet) electrostate [3] that will continue to scale manufacturing clean tech for the world [4] with minimal carbon footprint.

It cannot be overstated how fast they are going.

[1] China Crosses Energy Milestone as Coal Falls Below 50% of Power - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49110187 - July 2026

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50132343 (citations)

- "As the power system integrates more renewables, the true value of batteries to China’s energy transition is becoming undeniable," Yang said. China added a record amount of new battery storage facilities in 2025, ending the year with more than half of global capacity. Growth has continued this year, with installed lithium-ion battery storage reaching almost 150 gigawatts by the end of the first quarter, according to Ember. The country is targeting 300 gigawatts of battery storage capacity by 2030, up from 136 at the end of 2025, in addition to expanding its fleet of longer-duration pumped hydro storage to around 160 gigawatts from 66.

[3] https://hn.algolia.com/?q=china+electrostate

[4] https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e...

[–] toomuchtodo 5 hours ago
China’s Batteries Move Beyond Capacity Scale-up: Utility-Scale Storage Could Have Shifted 23 TWh More Clean Power in 2025 - https://cleantechnica.com/2026/07/16/chinas-batteries-move-b... - July 16th, 2026
[–] _blk 17 hours ago
Can they procure their own uranium? Coal still has the advantage of being more local, much simpler, faster to get up and running. Smaller plants also means smaller distribution radius etc. so more infrastructure decentralization. I imagine that's part of the thought process too.
[–] throw-qqqqq 16 hours ago
> Can they procure their own uranium?

Nuclear power in China peaked around 2021 at ~5% of the total electricity mix. I don’t think it’s a factor.

China likes renewable and batteries because it’s the cheapest way to generate power. It’s cheaper to build solar plus battery storage, than building new coal plants.

[–] lnsru 17 hours ago
In the case of armed conflict with the West all Chinese inverters will be weaponized to burn homes in the West. The shops will be empty in the West and West will be in very ugly situation outsourcing all the manufacturing. Better it doesn’t happen.